What is the Natural Immunity Model?

It’s becoming a little clearer why some folks think it is safe to not vaccinate their kids, leaving them at risk to get vaccine-preventable diseases.

Who's calling the measles outbreaks a national emergency?
Who’s calling the measles outbreaks a national emergency?

Their idea of a natural immunity model of getting disease simply involves hiding in the herd and any outbreaks they trigger magically stopping.

What is the Natural Immunity Model?

Bob Sears thinks he has exposed some big news, that not everyone who gets measles dies.

Fortunately, that’s very true and something folks have always known.

With a death rate of about 1 in 1000 cases, you wouldn’t expect to have had any deaths after just 50 or 60 cases. But you never know. It’s not like every 1000th case dies. It could be the second case, the 562nd, or the 3043rd.

The hospitalization rates work the same way. They are statistical averages of what typically happens when people get measles.

That’s why measles was once called a “harmless killer.” It is often harmless, if you call having a high fever and feeling miserable for a week harmless, but it is sometimes a killer.

So is what we are seeing in Washington “what an outbreak looks like with the natural immunity model,” when no one is vaccinated and protected?

Of course not!

In a natural immunity model, up to 90% of the people who are exposed to someone with measles get sick!

In the pre-vaccine era, everyone got measles. That's the natural immunity model.
In the pre-vaccine era, everyone got measles. That’s the natural immunity model.

In a natural immunity model, everyone gets measles.

Not everyone survives having measles though.

Remember, the last measles death in the United States was during a 2015 outbreak in Washington. A immunocompromised women got caught up in an outbreak of mostly unvaccinated people, got measles, and died.

That’s the natural immunity model.

This family didn't have a choice about their son getting sick - he was too young to be vaccinated when he was exposed to an unvaccinated child with measles.
This family didn’t have a choice about their son getting sick – he was too young to be vaccinated when he was exposed to an unvaccinated child with measles.

Not having a choice about getting measles.

That’s the natural immunity model.

Worry about your child with leukemia after an exposure to measles…

That’s the natural immunity model.

“Well, what does this mean? Much like the outbreak in 2014 in a large Amish community (around 400 cases), and the recent NY outbreak in an orthodox Jewish community (around 100 cases), these types of outbreaks are centralized and self-limiting—which means they don’t spread like wildfire. These cases are also almost exclusively in communities who are CHOOSING not to be vaccinated. In other words, they are not random people “victimized” by measles. #dontfeelsorryforthem”

Melissa Floyd

Do anti-vaccine folks really think that these outbreaks are self-limiting? That they just stop on their own?

Do they not understand that the only thing that keeps them from “spreading like wildfire” is the intensive work of the local and state health departments, efforts to get folks vaccinated, and quarantines?

The Disneyland measles outbreak, for example, was hardly centralized or self-limited. It spread to Arizona, Nebraska, Utah, Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Mexico, and Canada.

And like many other large outbreaks, it cost millions of dollars to contain.

“Measles outbreaks can be very costly to communities, a new report suggests. For example, the 2013 measles outbreak in New York City cost the city’s health department nearly $395,000 and more than 10,000 personnel hours, according to a report in JAMA Pediatrics. And there were other non-monetary costs, including the loss of a pregnancy, researchers reported.”

Measles outbreaks come with serious consequences

That hardly sounds like something that is harmless or self-limited.

“Now, the ACIP is preparing to add a 3rd dose for all college-age students to try to stop adults from getting and spreading measles—THAT’S how common adults cases are. Yet in Washington, there were only three??”

Melissa Floyd

Not only is there no call for a third dose of MMR to help stop the spread of measles, the CDC actually says a third dose isn’t necessary.

“In the event that a HCP who has 2 documented doses of MMR vaccine is tested serologically and determined to have negative or equivocal measles titer results, it is not recommended that the person receive an additional dose of MMR vaccine. Such persons should be considered to have presumptive evidence of measles immunity.”

Immunization of Health-Care Personnel: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)

Any talk about a third dose of MMR has to do with outbreaks of mumps…

“Is this all a coincidence my friends? Is the panic generated because of motive rather than data? In other words, could the media actually be encouraged to shift public beliefs on an issue to help pass legislation with a vested interest? #HerdImmunityDoesntApplyToVaccines”

Melissa Floyd

It’s not a coincidence that we are seeing so much anti-vaccine measles panic and propaganda these days. Outbreaks always bring it out.

Why?

It becomes harder to justify your decision to leave your kids unvaccinated and unprotected when you actually start to see that intentionally unvaccinated kids are getting sick.

More on the Natural Immunity Model

3 thoughts on “What is the Natural Immunity Model?

  1. Oh please. We have chronic illness,cancers, and deaths from so many things today. The only reason you are all over it is cause you can make money because you have a vaccine for it. Oh by the way I had the real measels, mumps, chicken pox (lol). What left me chronically ill and so uncomfortable that there were many days I felt dying would better than living like this one more day was whatever happend to me 48 hours after the MMR and HepB mandate. Like I said whatever happend because the medical field pretty much left me after they injured me. Thanks, now go to Hell where you belong.

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