Tag: measles myths

Dr. Bob Puts the Nail in the Coffin of the Herd Immunity Argument

Dr. Bob Sears, who actually wrote a book about vaccines, seems to think that he and his podcasting sidekick have put the nail in the coffin “of trying to use the herd immunity argument to justify coerced vaccinated.”

Dr. Bob seems to think that herd immunity doesn't apply to vaccines.

The meme he shared even includes the hashtag stating that herd immunity doesn’t apply to vaccines.

Dr. Bob Puts the Nail in the Coffin of the Herd Immunity Argument

While arguing against the idea of herd immunity and for coerced vaccination are common among anti-vaccine folks, neither is true.

Herd immunity is real and no-one is going to force anyone to vaccinate their kids. Vaccine mandates do not mean forced vaccination.

What about the idea that “all vaccines wane within about 2-15 years, leaving vaccinated children & adults unprotected?”

If that were true, then wouldn’t everyone who got sick in latest outbreaks be vaccinated? Why are most folks unvaccinated?

So we are either getting a lot of outbreaks because of waning immunity or your titers are getting boosted because you are getting exposed to so much natural disease. Got it?

While waning immunity is an issue for some vaccines, like mumps and pertussis, the primary and secondary failure rates are still not as bad as Dr. Bob suggests, which is why, in an outbreak, the attack rate of disease is always higher among those who are unvaccinated and unprotected.

The numbers don't always add up correctly when anti-vax folks try to do math.
The numbers don’t always add up correctly when anti-vax folks try to do math.

Is herd immunity the main argument that’s made when experts suggest we need stronger vaccine laws? I always thought the main argument is that folks should just vaccinate and protect their kids, but maintaining herd immunity so that your intentionally unvaccinated kids don’t put everyone else at risk is a good reason too.

Does everyone see the problem with Melissa Floyd’s math? This probably won’t be on the SAT, but you still want to get this right…

Like many others are doing right now, she used state level data. Since many of the folks who don’t vaccinate their kids cluster together in the same communities and schools, the “2% of those filing for exemptions” end up making up 10, 20, or even 30% of some school’s student population.

“This means if you are a primary non-responder, you are walking around every day with a false sense of security, clinically unvaccinated for that particular disease.”

Melissa Floyd

This is the whole point of herd immunity!

Because vaccines aren’t 100% effective, we can walk around all day without actually thinking about it much, hoping that we can rely on the fact that most other people are also vaccinated and protected. That keeps disease out of our community or herd.

The system typically breaks down though, not because vaccines aren’t effective enough, but because too many folks don’t get vaccinated.

“A 2011 article in “Vaccines”, edited by Stanley Plotkin, says, “Much of the early theoretical work on herd immunity assumed that vaccines induced solid immunity against infection…” Theoretical… Assumed…”

Melissa Floyd

She should have read the whole article, or at least used the whole quote…

“Much of the early theoretical work on herd immunity assumed that vaccines induce solid immunity against infection and that populations mix at random, consistent with the simple herd immunity threshold for random vaccination of Vc = (1-1/R0), using the symbol Vc for the critical minimum proportion to be vaccinated (assuming 100% vaccine effectiveness). More recent research has addressed the complexities of imperfect immunity, heterogeneous populations, nonrandom vaccination, and freeloaders.”

Herd Immunity: A Rough Guide

It doesn’t say what she thinks it says…

“Indeed, one might argue that herd immunity, in the final analysis, is about protecting society itself.”

Herd Immunity: A Rough Guide

So why haven’t we eradicated measles like we said we would?

“What’s funny is after the measles vaccine was licensed in 1963, the medical community declared a goal of eradicating measles by 1967. But 1967 came and went and it still wasn’t gone, 1977, 1987, 2000… the dates kept getting pushed, and the result was always the same. Meanwhile they continued to increase the hypothesized “herd immunity threshold”, eventually winding up at the extremely high 95% you hear today. “

Melissa Floyd

That’s actually a good question.

What happened to the previous goals of eliminating measles?

“In 1966, the USA began an effort to eradicate the disease within its own borders. After a series of successes and setbacks, in 2000, 34 years after the initial goal was announced, measles was declared no longer to be endemic in the USA.”

Orenstein et al on Eradicating measles: a feasible goal?

Along the way, we have gone from an estimated 100 million cases and 5.8 million deaths in 1980 and an estimated 44 million cases and 1.1 deaths in 1995 to “just” 7 million cases and 89,780 deaths in 2016.

“Under the Global Vaccine Action Plan, measles and rubella are targeted for elimination in five WHO Regions by 2020.”

Measles

While there is doubt that we can truly eradicate measles with the current vaccine, we can certainly control and eliminate measles if folks stop listening to anti-vaccine propaganda and they get vaccinated and protected.

More on Dr. Bob and His Herd Immunity Arguments

More Measles Myths

It’s kind of sad that some folks still believe many of the measles myths that were being told in 1963.

Folks once accepted measles as inevitable because they had no choice, but that changed when we got a vaccine.
Measles was long known as a harmless killer…

Wait, measles isn’t harmless?

But what about that Brady Bunch episode!?!

More Measles Myths

What other myths about measles have you heard?

Have you heard that folks never worried about measles before we had a vaccine? That it never even made the newspaper?

There were newspaper articles warning about measles in 1959 - a measles year.

The other myths they push are just as easily disproven…

Which of these myths do you believe?

Which ones are keeping you from vaccinating and protecting your kids?

More on Measles Myths

Why Are We Having Measles Outbreaks If MMR Vaccination Rates Are Not Declining?

Some folks just can’t understand why we are having so many measles outbreaks these days.

It is actually really easy to figure out and find the decline in vaccination rates if you really look for it…

Why Are We Having Measles Outbreaks If MMR Vaccination Rates Are Not Declining?

And it is easy to understand why we are having these measles outbreaks, even though overall vaccination rates in a state might be good.

The problem is the clusters of unvaccinated people in very specific areas of each city, county, and state.

MMR vaccination rates have dropped over the years in Washington (red line) and Clark County (yellow line). Can we thank Andrew Wakefield, Jenny McCarthy, and Bob Sears, etc.?

These pockets of susceptibles put everyone at risk, especially those who are too young to be vaccinated, too young to be fully vaccinated, and those with true medical exemptions who can’t be vaccinated.

Looking at the state and county level rates of MMR vaccination by kindergarten, you can see that a lot more kids haven’t been getting vaccinated since 1990. In fact, while 97.6% of kindergarteners during the 1998-99 school year had their MMR vaccination, it quickly fell to about 90%, where it remains today. In Clark County, where we are currently seeing a large outbreak of measles, the drop was even worse.

Not surprisingly, this mirrors the vaccine exemption rates in these areas.

“What’s so important about all this data is that it destroys the false narrative. Vaccination rates haven’t gone down lately. Period. Ask any epidemiologist you know to run these numbers.”

JB Handley on CDC, Check YOUR Data: MMR Vaccination Rates are NOT Declining

Speaking of false narratives, many states now publish school and county level immunization rates, so it is easy to see past anti-vaccine propaganda and see that vaccination rates truly have gone down lately in areas that are dealing with outbreaks.

Immunization rates are very low at the Portland Waldorf School.

The Oregon Health Authority actually publishes annual lists of child, adolescent, and school immunization rates.

“I wanted to make sure and corroborate that data with data from the Oregon Health Authority, which they conveniently don’t publish very often, but someone sent me their data from 2014, showing that 97.1% of 7th graders in Oregon have received an MMR vaccine! Where’s the decline?”

JB Handley on CDC, Check YOUR Data: MMR Vaccination Rates are NOT Declining

In 2017, 95.5% of teens in Oregon had received one dose of the MMR vaccine. Only 90% had received the recommended two doses. Rates in Multonah County, near the current outbreak in Washington, were actually a little better, at 96.7% (one dose) and 92% (2 doses).

Still, there are plenty of schools with much lower rates, creating the pockets of susceptibles that are causing these outbreaks.

Where’s the decline?

Have you checked the Portland Waldorf school?

While schools with higher rates help to boost the average rates for the county and state, the schools and communities with low rates are prime for outbreaks.

SchoolMMR Rates
Orchards Elementary School71.4%
Minnehaha Elementary School89.3%
Cornerstone Christian Academy?
Hearthwood Elementary School72.2%
Home Connection86.7%
Homelink River61.1%
Slavic Christian Academy?
Image Elementary School78%
Eisenhower Elementary School89%
Tukes Valley Primary and Middle School​?
Maple Grove School?
Evergreen High School?

In Washington, for example, the schools involved in the outbreak (at least the ones that report) all have immunization rates below the state and county levels.

If you are on the fence about vaccinating your kids, check where you’re getting your information from if what you are hearing is scaring you.

Vaccines are safe, with few risks, and necessary. Get vaccinated and stop the outbreaks.

Why Are We Having Measles Outbreaks If MMR Vaccination Rates Are Not Declining?

About Those Vaccine Strains in Measles Outbreaks…

A lot happens to control and contain a measles outbreak these days.

For one thing, you have to confirm that everyone with measles symptoms actually has measles. If you miss anyone, because measles is so contagious, then they could expose other people and the outbreak will keep getting bigger.

How do they confirm who has measles and who doesn’t?

While you could just make a clinical diagnosis, simply relying on the person’s history and pattern of symptoms, typically everyone just gets tested.

About Those Vaccine Strains in Measles Outbreaks…

What kind of testing?

“Laboratory confirmation is essential for all sporadic measles cases and all outbreaks. Detection of measles-specific IgM antibody and measles RNA by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) are the most common methods for confirming measles infection. Healthcare providers should obtain both a serum sample and a throat swab (or nasopharyngeal swab) from patients suspected to have measles at first contact with them. Urine samples may also contain virus, and when feasible to do so, collecting both respiratory and urine samples can increase the likelihood of detecting measles virus.”

Measles For Healthcare Professionals

It depends, but often a throat swab or a throat swab and urine are collected for PCR testing, especially if it has been 7 or fewer days since the patient came down with their rash.

If it has been longer than 7 days, then testing using urine and blood specimens can be performed.

“Molecular analysis can also be conducted to determine the genotype of the measles virus. Genotyping is used to map the transmission pathways of measles viruses. The genetic data can help to link or unlink cases and can suggest a source for imported cases. Genotyping is the only way to distinguish between wild-type measles virus infection and a rash caused by a recent measles vaccination.”

Measles For Healthcare Professionals

Because many people get vaccinated during an outbreak and a rash and fever is a side effect of the MMR vaccine, testing becomes very important in those who were recently vaccinated.

Statistics from the 2015 Disneyland measles outbreak...
Statistics from the 2015 Disneyland measles outbreak. Anti-vaccine folks, this slide doesn’t mean what you think it means.

After getting vaccinated, testing helps confirm that someone has vaccine strain measles and not wild type, a vaccine reaction, and don’t actually have measles.

“Here, we describe a real-time reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) method that detects the vaccine genotype (MeVA RT-quantitative PCR [RT-qPCR]) and that can provide rapid discrimination between wild-type-virus infections and vaccine reactions.”

Roy et al on Rapid Identification of Measles Virus Vaccine Genotype by Real-Time PCR

An no, the vaccine reaction is not that they developed measles! They developed a rash and/or fever, a common side effect of the MMR vaccine.

“During outbreaks, measles vaccine is administered to help control the outbreak, and in these situations, vaccine reactions may be mistakenly classified as measles cases.”

CDC on Genetic Analysis of Measles Viruses

So the reports that you might have seen that 31 people in the California measles outbreak had a vaccine strain of measles aren’t true. There were at least 31 people who were recently vaccinated during the outbreak and had a rash and/or fever, and they tested positive for the vaccine strain, proving that they weren’t actually part of the outbreak. None of them actually had measles though.

Has anyone ever gotten the measles after being vaccinated?

“Vaccine‐associated measles is a possible, but extremely rare event.”

Sood et al on Vaccine‐associated measles in an immunocompetent child

Yes, there are a few case reports.

Very rare case reports.

Who's to blame for low immunization rates and continuing outbreaks?
Who’s to blame for low immunization rates and continuing outbreaks?

We know who’s responsible for the rise in measles outbreaks and no, it ain’t folks who have recently been vaccinated. Vaccines are safe and necessary.

Get vaccinated. Stop the outbreaks.

More on Vaccine Strains in Measles Outbreaks

Fact Checking Sharyl Attkisson on the Measles Outbreaks

Breaking News!

Erin Elizabeth and Sharyl Attkisson reporting on measles outbreaks. What could go right?
Erin Elizabeth and Sharyl Attkisson reporting on measles outbreaks. What could go right?

Anti-vaccine folks are spreading fake news and propaganda from Sharyl Attkisson again.

Fact Checking Sharyl Attkisson on the Measles Outbreaks

While that’s probably not really news to anyone, let’s see what we got here…

“Bottom line is that they say that 31 of the 124 are not vaccinated. So guess what that means? You do the math, the rest are vaccinated.”

Erin Elizabeth

Her source?

An abc7NY article, Health Alert: 124 cases of measles now confirmed in Rockland County, which apparently was talking about both the outbreak in New York and another outbreak in Washington.

There are 35 cases in Washington, and “officials confirm that 31 of those confirmed patients had not been vaccinated against measles.”

What about in New York?

When this was published, there were 96 cases in Rockland County, 50 cases in Brooklyn, and 6 cases in Orange County. Almost all cases were unvaccinated.
When this was published, there were fewer cases in the outbreak, but still, almost all cases were unvaccinated.

Although the case counts have gone up – 128 in Rockland County and 64 in Brooklyn, it is unlikely that the percentages of unvaccinated to vaccinated have changed that much.

You do the math, even with the extra cases, you can’t get to 93 vaccinated people in the outbreak.

Bottom line, as in every other measles outbreak, the kids in the New York measles outbreak are almost all unvaccinated.

At it's worst, measles causes encephalitis or kills you! What's wrong with these people?
At it’s worst, measles causes encephalitis or kills you! What’s wrong with these people?

Anti-vaccine folks are panicking over the outbreaks and are putting out misinformation in overdrive.

“This is a very big article for us.”

Erin Elizabeth

Erin apparently thought she had a scoop. She “found” the first measles outbreak in which most kids were vaccinated! Except she didn’t… If she had done a little research and checked the outbreak stats on the health department website, she would have seen that.

Or she could have just read the article…

The 31 unvaccinated folks in the abc7NY article are clearly from the Oregon/Washington Outbreak.
The 31 unvaccinated folks in the abc7NY article are clearly from the Oregon/Washington Outbreak.

Don’t let them scare you into keeping your kids unvaccinated and at risk, especially when measles is on the rise.

More on Fact Checking Sharyl Attkisson on the Measles Outbreaks

More Measles Hysteria From Bob Sears

Most folks remember Dr. Bob’s response to the measles outbreak in his home town.

He told folks DON’T PANIC!!!!

More Measles Hysteria From Bob Sears

That was nearly four years ago, during the Disneyland measles outbreak.

So what’s he saying now?

From panic to hysteria - Dr. Bob on the measles outbreaks.

He’s moved from panic (a sudden overpowering fright) to hysteria (behavior exhibiting overwhelming or unmanageable fear or emotional excess), but is still pushing his usual talking points.

He has changed the way he is talking about measles deaths though.

Dr. Bob Sears actually reassured parents that measles wasn't deadly in developed countries, neglecting to mention the dozens of people who have died in outbreaks in Europe - another well-nourished population with lower vaccination rates than the U.S.
Dr. Bob Sears actually reassured parents that measles wasn’t deadly in developed countries, neglecting to mention the dozens of people who have died in outbreaks in Europe – another well-nourished population with lower vaccination rates than the U.S.

Remember how he used to say that measles wasn’t deadly and that no one had died of measles in a long time? Now, instead of acknowledging that a woman got caught up in the 2015 outbreaks in Washington and died, he has shifted to saying that there hasn’t been a pediatric death in a long time.

Either way, it is important to understand something he leaves out. There are few deaths from measles these days because most folks are vaccinated!

When did Dr. Bob’s book about vaccines come out? The one with the alternative vaccine schedule?

Whatever his motivation, let’s take a look at what Dr. Bob is saying about measles…

“Measles hysteria is everywhere. And it’s clear the hysteria is a result of media fear around this disease, a disease every child used to get (and handle virtually without complication) not that long ago.”

Dr. Bob Sears

Not that long ago?

I’ve been a pediatrician for 22 years and I have never seen a child with measles. Neither did I have measles, as I was fortunate enough to grow up in the post-vaccine era for measles – a vaccine that has been available for since the 1960s.

And while every child did indeed once get measles, in the pre-vaccine era, not all handled it without complications, which is why measles was called the harmless killer.

Anti-vaccine folks try to hide the risks of measles in mortality rates, but the reality of it is that about 500 people died each year up until the early 1960s when the first measles vaccine was developed.

And I guess that wasn’t that long ago, after all, we had good hygiene and sanitation and healthcare at the time, and yet, a lot of people still died.

“There is another side to this measles conversation: how we’ve unintentionally shifted the burden of disease to babies and adults, both groups who are more likely to experience complications, by vaccinating all schoolchildren and losing natural immunity.”

Dr. Bob Sears

There is really only one side to this.

Folks who are intentionally not vaccinating their kids are getting measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases and are putting us all at risk to get sick.

After all, the MMR vaccine provides life-long immunity to most people. That’s not the problem.

If we went back to the pre-vaccine era, when everyone got measles naturally, as Dr. Bob seems to be advocating for, not only would those kids have to earn their immunity, but many babies (those who hadn’t had measles yet) and adults (those with immune system problems) would still be at great risk.

Are you starting to see how silly his arguments are?

We almost had measles beat!

Consider that there were just 37 measles cases in the United States in 2004. And that we have already had more than twice that amount this month alone!

And while measles was cyclical in the pre-vaccine era, it shouldn’t be when folks are vaccinated and protected. What happened to the cycles between 1997 and 2007?

“Unlike natural immunity, the measles vaccine does NOT offer lifelong protection. Estimates of its protection average around 15 years, and describe a phenomenon in the vaccine world known as “waning immunity.”

Melissa Floyd

The measles vaccine provides lifelong protection. Waning immunity only refers to protection against mumps. And no, there is no call for a third MMR dose for extra protection against measles.

“The other trend we’ve seen over the past 10 years is an increase in adult measles cases. “

Melissa Floyd

Dr. Bob’s sidekick neglects to mention that in addition to unvaccinated kis with measles, the trend is an increase in measles cases in unvaccinated adults! After all, most folks who get measles in these outbreaks are unvaccinated.

“To recap: by losing natural immunity for measles for children 5-19 years old, we’ve exposed babies, pregnant women, and adults to measles—all vulnerable groups who are more likely to experience serious complications from the disease.”

Melissa Floyd

Perhaps the only true statement that they make – “we’ve exposed babies, pregnant women, and adults to measles—all vulnerable groups who are more likely to experience serious complications from the disease.”

And no, vitamin A is not a proven therapy or measles in developed countries. It mainly helps prevent complications in kids who have a vitamin A deficiency.

Hopefully, it is becoming evident that what we need to stop is the anti-vaccine propaganda that keeps folks from vaccinating and protecting their kids. We need to stop the outbreaks.

More on More Measles Hysteria From Bob Sears

More Fake Measles News!

Have you heard that the latest measles outbreaks in Washington and Oregon are fake news?

Have you read that there is no outbreak?

It’s all part of a conspiracy by the media to push a new vaccine law or a third dose of MMR or something.

What’s the evidence?

More Fake Measles News!

Are you ready for this?

The “evidence” that anti-vaccine sites are using to push their little conspiracy theory about “fake” measles outbreaks is the fact that the CDC hasn’t listed the new cases on their outbreak page!

The page clearly says the the data is updated monthly.

I guess they never noticed that the CDC only updates their Measles Cases and Outbreaks page once a month…

Or that the Pacific Northwest outbreak started just after the last update…

If it really was a hoax, did they ever wonder why the CDC didn’t get it on it when multiple county and state health departments obviously were, as they were publishing almost daily updated case counts?

How silly was the idea of these outbreaks being fake?

As bad as the crooked face theory of vaccine injury?

Or the idea that vaccines are designed to kill people?

I’m not sure, but it certainly ranks with the worst ideas that anti-folks have come up with over the years.

More on Anti-Vaccine Measles Propaganda