Tag: measles deaths

Did the BMJ Have a Debate About the Risk of Dying from the MMR Vaccine Vs Measles?

We know the risks of dying from the MMR vaccine (extremely rare) vs measles (low), so why would there be a debate about this in the BMJ?

Even Peter Gøtzsche calls out the arguments of the Physicians for Informed Consent for being spurious and absurd.
Even Peter Gøtzsche calls out the arguments of the Physicians for Informed Consent for being spurious and absurd.

Oh, there isn’t…

You might think that there is because the so-called Physicians for Informed Consent issued a press release touting an electronic comment (a rapid response) to the editor of the BMJ.

Rapid responses are basically electronic letters to the editor, but anti-vaccine folks treat them like they are peer-reviewed articles that have gotten published in a medical journal.
Rapid responses are basically electronic letters to the editor, but anti-vaccine folks treat them like they are peer-reviewed articles that have gotten published in a medical journal.

Are dueling letter’s to the editor considered a debate?

Interestingly, even Peter Gøtzsche, who has raised concerns about HPV vaccines and who has never gotten a flu shot, thinks that Shira Miller’s arguments against the measles vaccine are spurious and absurd.

Maybe that’s why she has to use fake press releases to try and persuade folks that her ideas aren’t ridiculous.

Of course, that just more obviously marks them as anti-vaccine propaganda.

More on the Risk of Dying from the MMR Vaccine Vs Measles

When is Measles Season?

For a while, especially once we eliminated the endemic spread of measles, we weren’t thinking about measles seasons anymore.

In addition to the recent rise in measles cases, this slide shows the patterns of measles seasons in different parts of the world.
In addition to the recent rise in measles cases, this slide shows the patterns of measles seasons in different parts of the world.

Unfortunately, with ongoing outbreaks and rising cases, many people are asking again – just when is measles season?

When is Measles Season?

Traditionally, the time when measles case counts are the highest occurs:

  • during the late winter and early spring (temperate climates, like the United States)
  • after the rainy season (tropical climates)
  • when kids are in school

So just like flu season, it’s always measles season somewhere…

And in areas of the world where measles is still highly endemic, you can expect cycles of larger measles epidemics every 1 to 4 years.

Can you guess why?

“As higher uniform population immunity is achieved the scale of epidemics, both their duration and absolute number of cases, progressively decreases. Epidemic frequency simultaneously decreases with increasing time intervals between epidemics. Another uniform feature as elimination is approached is the loss of epidemic seasonality.”

Durrheim et al on Measles – The epidemiology of elimination

I’ll give you a hint – there is nothing different about the measles virus during those years.

Eventually though, as the number of people susceptible to measles builds up, there is the opportunity for bigger outbreaks. Of course, that doesn’t happen if most people are vaccinated and protected.

When is Measles Season in the United States?

What about in the United States in the post-vaccine era?

Visiting a place with a lot of measles, especially if you aren't vaccinated and protected, increases the risk that you will bring measles home with you and start an outbreak.
Visiting a place with a lot of measles, especially if you aren’t vaccinated and protected, increases the risk that you will bring measles home with you and start an outbreak.

We don’t really have a measles season, as all of our cases are now imported from other parts of the world.

  1. Where and when are folks traveling?
  2. Where is measles on the rise?

That’s when we will see more measles cases here.

“Source countries included Philippines (14 cases), Ukraine (8), Israel (5), Thailand (3), Vietnam (2), Germany (2), and one importation each from Algeria, France, India, Lithuania, Russia, and the United Kingdom.”

Increase in Measles Cases — United States, January 1–April 26, 2019

In the early part of 2019, we saw a lot of cases because unvaccinated travelers were returning from Philippines, Ukraine, and Israel, countries in peak measles season.

Are Europe's measles outbreaks slowing down yet?
Are Europe’s measles outbreaks slowing down yet?

As cases in those countries hopefully slow down over the summer, unfortunately, we might see a rise in other parts of the world.

Of course, there is an easy way to end our measles seasons once and for all.

Two doses of MMR is your best protection against measles.

Get vaccinated and protected, especially before traveling out of the country.

More on Measles Season?

How Many People Have Died from Measles in 2019?

As measles cases climb, some folks are interested in just one thing, how many people have died from measles this year?

A lot of people are dying from measles this year.
A lot of people are dying from measles this year.

The rest of us?

We understand that as we see more and more cases, it simply increases the chances that someone might eventually die.

How Many People Have Died from Measles in 2019?

So far, we have been very lucky that there have been no measles deaths, even as we pass 1,000 cases.

Not that 1,000 cases is some magic number where you start to see deaths.

Consider that we only had 188 cases in 2015, when we had the last measles death in the United States. That year, a woman got caught up in a small outbreak in Washington.

Where Are People Dying of Measles in 2019?

There are also many countries with rather small numbers of cases that are seeing measles deaths.

The last death in France, in April 2019, occurred after only 852 cases were reported.

In Romania, the first death of 2019, in January, came after just 133 cases.

Measles acts quickly. Do your part to protect yourself and others.

And since the outbreaks in Europe started in 2016, there have been deaths in:

  • Bulgaria – only 416 cases
  • Portugal – only 202 cases
  • Spain – only 457 cases
  • Switzerland – two deaths and only 197 cases!

Of course, there are more deaths in countries that are seeing more cases.

Again, since 2016:

CountryDeathsCases
Romania5917,850
Greece43,270
Italy139,277
France44,138
UK12,000
Germany12,000
Israel24,256 (since 2018)
Ukraine1752,034 (2019)
Serbia155,797 (since Oct 2017)
Brazil1219,036 (since 2018)
Tunisia303,141 (2019)
Malaysia62,129 (since 2017)
Thailand235,893 (since 2018)
Guinea141,359 cases (2019)

And a lot more deaths in some countries:

  • Madagascar – at least 1,233 reported deaths among 122,840 registered cases
  • Philippines – at least 389 deaths in 2019, with over 30,000 cases.
  • Venezuela – at least 134 deaths since 2017, with over 9,585 cases
  • Democratic Republic of Congo – at least 1,460 deaths this year, with over 84,000 cases
  • Nigeria – at least 89 deaths this year, with nearly 29,000 cases
  • Chadat least 191 deaths this year, with over 18,000 cases

Measles is on the rise.

Measles deaths are on the rise too. While the risk of complications of measles can be reduced with vitamin A treatment, that doesn’t eliminate them. And the benefit is mostly in those who are already vitamin A deficient. Vitamin A has a much more modest effect in developed countries, where measles deaths still occur.

What to reduce your child’s risk of dying from measles?

Get them vaccinated and protected.

Tragically, this all comes after we were making progress towards measles elimination, reaching a record low for global cases and deaths just a few years ago.

How will we respond? An even stronger effort to finally get measles under control? Or continued worsening, with more cases and more deaths?

More on How Many People Have Died from Measles in 2019

How Do Anti-Vaccine Folks Respond to New Information?

Ever wonder why most anti-vaccine folks don’t change their mind and get their kids vaccinated and protected when they “do their research” and “get educated” about vaccines?

You would think that they would, considering that anti-vaccine talking points are all based on myths and misinformation.

How Do Anti-Vaccine Folks Respond to New Information?

While some do change their mind, even before they are faced with an outbreak or their child getting sick, the biggest reason that others don’t is that they are stuck in an echo-chamber of like-minded folks.

This discussion is a good example of how this works.

The original poster wasn’t aware that measles was on the rise all over the world and that people are dying.

How do you respond to the fact that people are dying of measles?

So do they understand that reason behind the deaths is because those folks were unvaccinated?

Why didn’t “extreme poverty, poor nutrition, and a lack of sanitation” cause more measles deaths in Ukraine, Philippines, and Brazil before now?

Nope.

It’s always the vaccine with these folks…

It is anything and everything except that they weren’t vaccinated!

According to whom? You can actually go to the national health sites for each of these countries and find the data for yourself, if you were really interested in doing research.

And that they aren’t in America!

That’s not America… yet. Our measles cases are rising though and sooner or later we will start seeing measles deaths.

So what’s wrong with their thinking?

To start, these countries aren’t underdeveloped!

Brazil and the Philippines are newly industrialized countries and while Ukraine is considered a developing country, it is hardly the developing country without sanitation and nutrition that these folks make it out to be.

The problem in all of these countries isn’t a lack of nutrition, clean water, or health care. It is that too many folks are unvaccinated!

That becomes easier to see when you look at where else we are seeing a lot of measles deaths – the rest of Europe.

In the past 12 months, there have been 22 deaths from measles in Romania, Italy, France, and Greece.

Are folks in Italy suffering from malnutrition? Do they not have clean water?

There have been 64 deaths in Romania since there outbreaks started a few years ago.

Although Romania is a developing country, it isn’t a lack of clean water and sanitation that is causing measles deaths. It is that too many people in Romania are unvaccinated!

And too many people are listening to anti-vaccine propaganda.

Vaccines are safe, with few risks, and are obviously necessary.

More on How Anti-Vaccine Folks Respond to New Information