Tag: pertussis outbreaks

Quarantine Signs for Vaccine-Preventable Diseases

If everyone breezed through vaccine-preventable diseases so easily back in the pre-vaccine era, then why were so many folks held under quarantine?

Quarantine Sign

Vaccine-preventable diseases have always been known to be dangerous and life-threatening.

If they were once thought of as a way of life, it was only because there was no way to avoid them!

As someone with an uncle who developed severe paralytic polio disease a few years before the first vaccine was developed, I can tell you that these diseases were no walk in the park.

Still, while quarantines are helpful to control disease outbreaks, they clearly aren’t enough. That’s evident by the way that vaccines were used in Leicester to control smallpox, even though some folks say it was all due to quarantines. It wasn’t.

How long would quarantine last?

Usually through at least one incubation period for the disease.

Quarantine Signs
Smallpox quarantine sign A Board of Health quarantine poster warning that the premises are contaminated by smallpox.
Diphtheria quarantine sign. Diphtheria quarantine sign.
Polio quarantine sign Polio quarantine sign.
In the pre-vaccine era, we had outbreaks of polio, and other, now vaccine-preventable diseases. Whooping cough quarantine sign.
Unvaccinated children exposed to measles are quarantined for at least 21 days. Mumps quarantine sign
Chickenpox quarantine sign Rubella quarantine sign.

Have you ever seen any of these quarantine signs?

If so, have you seen any of them lately?

That’s because vaccines work.

What to Know About Quarantine Signs for Vaccine-Preventable Diseases

In the pre-vaccine era, quarantines were the only way to try and help stop many diseases from spreading in the community.

More on Quarantine Signs for Vaccine-Preventable Diseases

Pertussis Outbreaks

Like measles and mumps, pertussis, or whooping cough, is another vaccine-preventable disease that has been increasing in recent years.

Pre-Vaccine Era Pertussis Outbreaks

Pertussis has been known since at least the Middle Ages, although the bacteria that causes pertussis, Bordetella pertussis, wasn’t discovered until 1906.

Like measles, pertussis was a top killer of young children in the pre-vaccine era.
Like measles, pertussis was a top killer of young children in the pre-vaccine era.

That discovery led to the later development of the first pertussis vaccines, but before then, pertussis was a big killer, with epidemic cycles every 2 to 5 years.

During one of these cycles in the United States, from 1926 to 1930, there were:

  • 909,705 cases, and
  • 36,013 deaths

Unfortunately, even natural infection doesn’t provide life-long immunity, so adults would get pertussis and give it to susceptible kids, who were most likely to die during these epidemics.

But even in non-epidemic years, a lot of folks got pertussis. The number of reported cases ranged from “just” 161,799 in 1928 to 202,210 in 1926. And during one of the biggest years, 1934, there were 265,269 cases!

Post-Vaccine Era Pertussis Outbreaks

That changed in the vaccine era.

The first pertussis vaccines were developed in the 1930s and became more widely used in the 1940s when it was combined into the whole-cell DTP vaccine.

This was replaced with the acellular DTaP vaccine in 1997, with the Tdap vaccine being added to the vaccine schedule in 2006.

These vaccines helped to greatly reduce how many people got pertussis and how many people died from pertussis:

  • 1940 – 183,866 cases
  • 1950 – 120,718 cases and 1, 118 deaths
  • 1960 – 14,809 cases and 118 deaths
  • 1970 – 4,249 cases and 12 deaths
  • 1980 – 1,730 cases and 11 deaths
  • 1990 – 4,570 cases and 12 deaths
  • 2000 – 7,867 cases and 12 deaths
  • 2010 – 27,550 cases and 26 deaths

They never eradicated pertussis though, and as you can see, recently, pertussis cases have started to rise again.

Is it a coincidence that whooping cough came back as more folks began to skip and delay vaccines for their kids?
Is it a coincidence that whooping cough came back as more folks began to skip and delay vaccines for their kids?

In 2012, there were 48,277 cases of pertussis in the United States, the most since 1950, when we had 68,687 cases. Unfortunately, with the rise in cases, we are also seeing the tragic consequences of this disease – 20 deaths in 2012, mostly infants under age 3 months.

Pertussis cases remained steady, but high, in 2013 and 2014, at around 30,000 cases in the United States.

In California, pertussis reached epidemic levels. The California Department of Public Health reported at least 11,114 cases in 2014 – the highest numbers of pertussis cases in the state in 70 years!

And as expected with the rise in cases, there were 3 pertussis related deaths in California that year – all infants who had contracted pertussis when they were less than 8 weeks old. Two of the infants became sick in 2013, but the third, a 5-week-old baby, got infected in 2014.

Another baby, only 25 days old died in early 2015, but will be counted as the 2nd death of 2014 since that is when the illness started. About 383 patients, mostly infants who are less than 4 months old, were hospitalized in California that year, including 80 who required intensive care. And according to the California Department of Public Health, about 82% of the cases in infants were born to mothers who did not receive a dose of Tdap during their third trimester of pregnancy.

What’s happened since then?

Pertussis cases are continuing to fall each year! In fact, with about 16,000 cases in the United States, 2017 may have ended with the lowest number of pertussis cases since 2008.

Still, with just 1,830 pertussis cases in California in 2016, there were two deaths – both infants who were younger than 3 months of age when they got sick. And there was at least one death in 2017, with similar rates of disease, although reports are still preliminary.

Why So Many Pertussis Outbreaks?

Ever since a 2010 California pertussis outbreak, in which there were 9,154 cases of pertussis, the most in 63 years, and 10 infants died, many people, especially parents, began wondering why we were seeing more pertussis these days.

Is it because the pertussis vaccines simply don’t work, as the anti-vaccine movement would have you think?

Or is it because there are higher rates of unvaccinated kids these days and parents using alternative immunization schedules, instead of the standard immunization schedule from the CDC?

James Cherry, MD is an expert on pertussis and pertussis vaccines.
James Cherry, MD is an expert on pertussis and pertussis vaccines.

A commentary, Why Do Pertussis Vaccines Fail?, by James Cherry, MD, gave us some answers.

While the title of the article might have you think that all of the blame lies with the pertussis vaccines, that certainly isn’t the case. While there can be vaccine failures with the pertussis vaccines, just like any other vaccine, that doesn’t mean that the vaccine doesn’t work for most children.

One of the problems is that the DTaP vaccine likely isn’t as effective as the older DTP vaccine. So instead of efficacy of 84 to 85%, as was once believed, it is likely closer to just 71 to 78%.

Other issues, including waning immunity, the possibility of an incorrect balance of antigens in the vaccine that could create a blocking effect, and genetic changes in the B. pertussis bacteria, could also possibly lead to increased vaccine failure rates.

So it isn’t that the pertussis vaccines don’t work.

That should be easy to see when you look at the pertussis rates in California, when the highest rates by far were in infants less than 6 months of age (434 per 100,000 people). In contrast, children who were 6 months to 6 years old had a rate of only 62 per 100,000.

And the results of a study that were presented at the 49th annual meeting of the Infectious Diseases Society of America in Boston show just how important the pertussis vaccine is, as:

  • vaccine effectiveness was 98.1 percent among children who received their 5th dose within the past year
  • long term effectiveness – children who were five or more years past their last DTaP dose – was about 71 percent
  • children who had never received any doses of DTaP (unvaccinated children) faced odds of having whooping cough at least eight times higher than children who received all five doses

It is also important to note that the high rates seen in 2010 in California are still well below the rates that were seen in the pre-vaccination era, when the attack rate of pertussis in the United States was as high as 157 per 100,000 people, with about 200,000 cases a year.

What’s the answer?

“The present “resurgence of pertussis” is mainly due to greater awareness and the use of PCR for diagnosis. There are also many other factors which have contributed to the “resurgence.” New vaccines are clearly needed; with our present vaccines (DTaP and adolescent and adult formulated tetanus and diphtheria toxoids and acellular pertussis vaccine (Tdap)), if used correctly, severe pertussis and deaths in infants can be prevented.”

James D. Cherry, MD on The History of Pertussis (Whooping Cough); 1906 – 2015: Facts, Myths, and Misconceptions

It certainly isn’t for more kids to follow non-standard, parent-selected, delayed protection vaccine schedules or to simply skip vaccines all together. Since natural immunity isn’t going to keep newborns and infants from getting pertussis, the ages which are most at risk for life-threatening infections, they can catch pertussis from people around them, including those working on their natural immunity. Natural infections don’t even provide life-long protection against pertussis, as some people believe. That natural immunity wanes fairly quickly too.

Not Vaccinated? No Kisses!
Not Vaccinated? No Kisses!

The future of pertussis control is more likely going to be in maximizing our current vaccination program, including getting more teens and adults to get the Tdap vaccine, especially when women are pregnant.

That’s the best strategy, at least until new pertussis vaccines are developed. It provides a lot of benefits. According to the CDC, like with the flu vaccine, when you get a pertussis vaccine, in addition to protecting yourself and those people around you, “people who do catch whooping cough after being vaccinated are much less likely to be hospitalized or die from the disease.”

Unfortunately, not everyone has gotten the message. And because of waning immunity, children who aren’t vaccinated against pertussis can’t “hide in the herd” and rely on the rest of us who do vaccinate our children to provide them with protection. Instead, since they are at a higher risk, they get pertussis and get even more people sick.

This slogan, during a whooping cough epidemic, reminded parents to get their kids vaccinated now.
This slogan, during a whooping cough epidemic, reminded parents to get their kids vaccinated now.

In one study, Parental refusal of pertussis vaccination is associated with an increased risk of pertussis infection in children, researchers found that “vaccine refusers had a 23-fold increased risk for pertussis when compared with vaccine acceptors, and 11% of pertussis cases in the entire study population were attributed to vaccine refusal.” The highly contagious nature of pertussis then means every primary case is probably going to infect as many as 17 other people. That’s why it makes sense that higher rates of children using vaccine exemptions could be at least one of the factors in these outbreaks.

In fact, several studies, including, Geographic Clustering of Nonmedical Exemptions to School Immunization Requirements and Associations With Geographic Clustering of Pertussis, found that “geographic pockets of vaccine refusal are associated with the risk of pertussis outbreaks in the whole community.”

Get educated. Vaccines are safe and as you can see with the rise in outbreaks, vaccines are necessary.

What to Know About Pertussis Outbreaks

Many factors are responsible for the rise in pertussis outbreaks in recent years, but it is clear that being unvaccinated and unprotected put you at greatest risk for getting pertussis and passing it on to others.

More on Pertussis Outbreaks

The Benefits and Risks of Delaying Vaccines

Believe it or not, some pediatricians think it is a good idea to delay vaccines.

“Wait until a child is clearly developmentally “solid” before vaccinating because we just don’t know which children will react badly to immunizations.”

Dr. Jay Gordon

In fact, Dr. Bob wrote a whole book pushing his own immunization schedule!

Not surprisingly, there are no benefits to skipping or delaying your child’s vaccines, but there are plenty of risks.

What Are the Risks of Delaying Vaccines?

Of course, the biggest risk of delaying your child’s vaccines is that they will get a disease that they could have been vaccinated and protected against.

“In 1989, the Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine was relatively new and not yet routine. I was aware of the vaccine’s availability, but, busy mom that I was, I had not yet made the trip to the health department to get the immunization for my two-year-old daughter, Sarah. I will always regret that bit of procrastination and the anguish that it caused.”

Peggy Archer

Although we are much more used to hearing vaccine injury scare stories, if you are thinking of delaying your child’s vaccines, there are also many personal stories of parents who regret not vaccinating their children that you should review.

You can wait too long to get a tetanus shot...
You can wait too long to get a tetanus shot… Photo by Petrus Rudolf de Jong (CC BY 3.0)

It is true that the risk may be very small for a disease like polio, which is close to being eradicated worldwide, but it is not zero.

Consider that the last case of polio occurred in 2005, when an unvaccinated 22-year-old U.S. college student became infected with polio vaccine virus while traveling to Costa Rica in a university-sponsored study-abroad program.

So you might not get wild polio unless you visit specific regions of Afghanistan or Pakistan, but you might want to be concerned about vaccine-associated polio if you go to a country that is still giving the oral polio vaccine.

And the risk is certainly much higher than zero for most other vaccine-preventable diseases, as we see from the regular outbreaks of measles, mumps, and pertussis, etc.

Some studies even suggest that delaying your child’s vaccines puts them at more risk for side effects once you do start to get caught up!

“…in the second year of life, delay of the first MMR vaccine until 16 months of age or older resulted in an IRR for seizures in the 7 to 10 days after vaccination that was 3 times greater than if administration of MMR vaccine occurred on time.”

Hambridge et al on Timely Versus Delayed Early Childhood Vaccination and Seizures

Why would that be?

It’s probably because that’s when kids are most at risk for febrile seizures.

What Are the Benefits of Delaying Vaccines?

Again, there are no real benefits of delaying vaccines, except that your child gets out of one or more shots. Of course, that means your unvaccinated child is left unprotected.

And it is going to mean more shots later, once you do decide to get caught up.

Will it mean a lower risk of autism, ADHD, eczema, peanut allergies, or anything else?

Nope.

“The prevalence of allergic diseases and non-specific infections in children and adolescents was not found to depend on vaccination status.”

Schmitz et al on Vaccination Status and Health in Children and Adolescents Findings of the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS)

Unvaccinated kids are not healthier than those who are vaccinated. They are just at higher risk of getting a vaccine-preventable disease.

Why do some folks think that there are benefits to delaying vaccines? Because they have been scared into thinking that vaccines are harmful and that they don’t even work.

“I also warn them not to share their fears with their neighbors, because if too many people avoid the MMR, we’ll likely see the diseases increase significantly.”

Dr. Bob Sears in The Vaccine Book

Obviously, that put us all at risk. If too many people skip or delay their child’s vaccines, we will see more outbreaks.

Get educated. Vaccines work. Vaccines are safe. Vaccines are necessary.

What to Know About the Risks of Delaying Vaccines

Delaying your child’s vaccines offers no benefits and lots of increased risks, especially an increased risk of getting the diseases that the vaccines protect us against.

More on the Risks of Delaying Vaccines

Do More Vaccinated or Unvaccinated Kids Get Sick in Outbreaks?

Some anti-vaccine folks continue to claim that vaccines don’t work and that most outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases are actually caused by kids who have been vaccinated.

They also push the myth that more vaccinated than unvaccinated kids get sick in most outbreaks.

Vaccinated vs Unvaccinated in an Outbreak

So are outbreaks usually caused by kids who have been vaccinated?

No, of course not.

Do we sometimes see more vaccinated than unvaccinated kids in some of these outbreaks?

Yes, sometimes we do.

Vaccine Epidemiology

Wait, what?

Yes, we sometimes see more vaccinated than unvaccinated kids in an outbreak.

How can that be if vaccines work?

It is actually very easy to understand once you learn a little math and a little more epidemiology.

Basically, it is because while vaccines work, they don’t work 100% of the time, and more importantly, there are way more vaccinated kids around than unvaccinated kids.

The Mathematics of Disease Outbreaks

That means that you need to understand that more than the absolute number of vaccinated and unvaccinated people that got sick in an outbreak, you really want to know the percentages of vaccinated vs unvaccinated kids who got sick.

For example, in a school with 1,000 kids, you might be very surprised if six kids got a vaccine preventable disease, and three of them were vaccinated, leaving three unvaccinated.

Does that really mean that equal amounts of vaccinated and unvaccinated kids got sick?

I guess technically, but in the practical sense, it only would if half of the kids in the school were unvaccinated. Now unless they go to a Waldorf school, it is much more likely that over 90 to 95% of the kids were vaccinated, in which case, a much higher percentage of unvaccinated kids got sick.

Before we use a real world example, some terms to understand include:

  • attack rate – how many people will get sick when exposed to a disease
  • basic reproductive number or Ro – different for each disease, Ro basically tells you  just how contagious a disease is and ranges from about 1.5 for flu, 8 for chicken pox, and 15 for measles
  • vaccine coverage – how many people are vaccinated
  • vaccine efficacy – how well a vaccine works

You also need to know some formulas:

  • attack rate = new cases/total in group
  • vaccine coverage rate = number of people who are fully vaccinated / number of people who are eligible to be vaccinated
  • vaccine effectiveness = (attack rate in unvaccinated group – attack rate in vaccinated group) / attack rate in unvaccinated group x 100

Unfortunately, it is often hard to use these formulas in most outbreaks.

Why?

For one thing, it is hard to get accurate information on the vaccination status of all of the people in the outbreak. In addition to those who are confirmed to be vaccinated or unvaccinated, there is often a large number who’s vaccination status is unknown. And even if you know the vaccination status of everyone in the outbreak, it can be even harder to get the vaccine coverage rate or a neighborhood or city.

Outbreaks of Vaccine Preventable Diseases

Reports of measles outbreaks among highly vaccinated populations are from before we started doing a second dose in 1994.
Reports of measles outbreaks among highly vaccinated populations are from before we started doing a second dose of MMR… way back in 1994.

We know what starts most outbreaks.

And no, it’s not shedding

For example, with measles, it is typically an unvaccinated person who travels out of the country, returns home after they have been exposed but are still in their incubation period, and then exposes others once they get sick. And the great majority of folks in these measles outbreaks are unvaccinated.

Some examples of these outbreaks include:

  • the 2014 Ohio measles outbreak that started with two unvaccinated Amish men getting measles in the Philippines while on a missionary trip and ended up with at least 388 cases before it was over, almost all unvaccinated
  • a 2013 North Carolina measles outbreak with 22 cases started after an unvaccinated traveler had returned from India
  • an outbreak of measles in New York, in 2013, with at least 58 cases, tarted with an intentionally unvaccinated teen returning from a trip to London
  • a 2011 outbreak of measles in Minnesota, when an unvaccinated child traveled out of the country, developed measles, and returned to his undervaccinated community, causing the state’s largest measles outbreak in 20 years

But what about mumps and pertussis?

Those outbreaks are all among vaccinated kids, right?

Nope.

In one of the biggest mumps outbreak, in Arkansas, only 71% of people were up-to-date on their vaccines!

And keep in mind that while we do know that there are issues with waning immunity with some vaccines, you are still much more likely to become infected and get others sick if you are not vaccinated. And you will likely have a much more severe disease.

A 2013 pertussis outbreak in Florida is a good example that even with all the bad press it gets, the DTaP and Tdap vaccines work too. This outbreak was started by an unvaccinated child at a charter school with high rates of unvaccinated kids. About 30% of unvaccinated kids got sick, while there was only one case “in a person who reported having received any vaccination against pertussis.”

In another 2013 pertussis outbreak in Florida, this time in a preschool, although most of the kids were vaccinated, the outbreak started with “a 1-year-old vaccine-exempt preschool student.” And the classroom with the highest attack rate, was “one in which a teacher with a laboratory-confirmed case of pertussis who had not received a Tdap booster vaccination, worked throughout her illness.”

In outbreak after outbreak, we see the same thing, sometimes with deadly consequences – an unvaccinated child or adult triggers an outbreak and then a lot of unvaccinated folks get sick. Unfortunately, others get caught up in these outbreaks too, including those too young to be vaccinated, those who can’t be vaccinated because of true medical exemptions, and those whose vaccines may not have worked as well as we would have liked.

Get educated.

Vaccines are safe. Vaccines are necessary. Vaccines work.

What to Know About Vaccinated vs Unvaccinated in Outbreaks

Most outbreaks are started by someone who is unvaccinated, often after a trip out of the country, and the resulting outbreak will likely get many more unvaccinated than vaccinated folks sick.

More About Vaccinated vs Unvaccinated in Outbreaks