Tag: vaccine effectiveness

Will This Season’s Flu Shot Fail?

Flu season hasn’t even started yet, but we are all seeing anti-vax myths warning that the flu shot will fail in epidemic numbers. Where are they coming from?

Most of these anti-vax folks don't think that any vaccines work...
Most of these anti-vax folks don’t think that any vaccines work…

A lot of it is from the usual suspects…

Will This Season’s Flu Shot Fail?

Anyway, is there anything to this?

Can anyone really predict whether or not this season’s flu vaccine will be effective or if it will fail?

Probably not.

What they can do is scare folks into thinking that the flu vaccine won’t work, so that they don’t get vaccinated and protected, ensuring that we really will have a bad flu season!

Consider last fall. Many were predicting a mild flu season in North America following a mild season in the Southern Hemisphere and yet, 136 children died.

And this year?

Will a moderate to severe flu season in the Southern Hemisphere mean that we will be seeing a severe flu season too?

Maybe, but consider that the issue in the Southern Hemisphere wasn’t a vaccine mismatch.

Last year's flu vaccine in Australia was a good match.

They had a good match with their flu vaccine. The problem was just that they had a lot of flu!

So why do folks think that we will have a mismatch?

The A strains in the southern and northern hemisphere flu vaccines are different.

It’s because the A strains in the Southern and Northern Hemisphere flu vaccines are different, which is a little unusual, but not unheard of.

“Additional data obtained in recent weeks has confirmed the wide regional differences in the relative proportion of A(H3N2) viruses belonging to the phylogenetic subclade 3C.2a1b and clade 3C.3a. The majority of A(H3N2) viruses collected and genetically characterised from September 2018 to February 2019 belonged to the phylogenetic subclade 3C.2a1b; however, the proportion of viruses falling into clade 3C.3a has increased substantially since November 2018 in several countries in western Europe, Israel and especially in the United States of America.”

A lot of work goes into figuring out which strains to include in each year’s flu vaccine and that got us to where we are now.

Unfortunately, a lot of different flu vaccine strains circulate each season, which is why some folks get sick even though they have been vaccinated.
Unfortunately, a lot of different flu vaccine strains circulate each season, which is why some folks get sick even though they have been vaccinated.

Did they make the right decision?

Is our flu vaccine a match?

Some folks are saying that since they changed it again, for next year’s southern hemisphere flu vaccine, then they must have messed up.

So which flu virus strains are circulating so far? Will it be the 3c3.A clade of H3N2 that is in our flu vaccine? Will it be an H1N1 virus?

Of course, it is too early to tell.

“A/H3N2 viruses continue to show substantial diversity in HA sequences with a deep split between 3c3.A and 3c2.A1b viruses. The most notable recent developments are the rapid rise of clade A1b/137F – a subclade of A1b/135K – in China and Bangladesh and clade A1b/197R – a subclade of A1b/131K – which dominates the ongoing season in Australia. Our models predict that A1b/137F and A1b/197R will be the dominant clades next year with A1b/197R accounting for most circulation. There is, however, large uncertainty in the true extent of A1b/137F circulation.”

Bedford et al on Seasonal influenza circulation patterns and projections for September 2019 to September 2020

While we are seeing sporadic cases, flu activity is very low, which makes it a great time to get vaccinated and protected, before flu season really gets started.

And the predictions of a failed flu vaccine?

“Over the last 18 months, 3c3.A viruses have increased markedly in the US and Europe and accounted for 60% of isolates in North America and 10-20% in Europe during the last NH winter.”

Bedford et al on Seasonal influenza circulation patterns and projections for September 2019 to September 2020

I won’t let it get in my way of getting my family vaccinated and protected.

I’ll be getting my flu vaccine, crossing my fingers that they are wrong, and hoping that a universal flu vaccine gets here much sooner than later.

Even if they are right and one strain is mismatched, I understand that being vaccinated is the best protection against the flu and still provides many benefits, including the chance for milder symptoms and less severe disease.

And I know that the only true fail here, in addition to pushing misinformation about flu vaccines, is in skipping a yearly flu vaccine.

More on This Season’s Flu Shot

Did Bobby Kennedy Admit That Chickenpox Kills People?

The usual talking point from folks who are anti-vax is that vaccine-preventable diseases are mild. Some even go so far to say that they are good for you! It isn’t too often that these folks admit that these diseases, from measles and polio to chickenpox, do indeed kill people.

Bobby Kennedy finally gets it right, admitting that chickenpox killed 100 people a year in the pre-vaccine era.
Having chickenpox doesn’t protect you from developing shingles – it’s why you develop shingles!

No, chickenpox doesn’t kill 1 in 100 people, but that doesn’t mean that people don’t die with chickenpox, especially if they are unvaccinated and unprotected.

Did Bobby Kennedy Admit That Chickenpox Kills People?

Do we want to go back to the days when more folks were dying with chickenpox?

“The total cost to theoretically save 50 children is approximately $900 million dollars or $17.5 million per life saved.”

Bobby Kennedy

What else does Bobby Kennedy say?

“Chickenpox can reactivate as shingles when an adult’s immunity wanes or is not boosted by periodic exposure to children with chickenpox. CDCs clinical studies predicted that widespread vaccination would double shingles rates among adults and children and precipitate a shingles epidemic. “

Bobby Kennedy

While it is true that chickenpox can reactivate as shingles, a bonus of getting vaccinated and protected with the chickenpox vaccine is that it actually decreases your risk of developing shingles later in life!

And those countries that didn’t vaccinate and protect their kids with the chickenpox vaccine, because they thought it might cause a later shingles epidemic if fewer kids were sick and boosting the immunity of adults who had already had chickenpox still saw a rise in shingles cases.

That’s probably why many of those countries are now considering adding the chickenpox vaccine to their schedule.

What else did Bobby Kennedy say?

“…chickenpox presents as a mild rash and slight fever and confers lifetime immunity to chickenpox and significant protection against shingles, heart disease, atopic diseases, and cancers including glioma, brain, and spinal tumors. “

Bobby Kennedy

The part about getting lifetime immunity to chickenpox is true.

Does chickenpox provide significant protection against heart disease, atopic disease, or cancer?


And of course, if you have ever had chickenpox, you know that it is far more than “a mild rash and a slight fever.”

Unvaccinated kids with chickenpox typically have 250 to 500 blisters over their entire body.
Unvaccinated kids with chickenpox typically have 250 to 500 blisters over their entire body. Photo courtesy CDC/ Dr. John Noble, Jr..

In a routine case of chickenpox, the fever typically rises to at least 102°F and lasts for at least 2 to 3 days, with the rash persisting for up to a week.

Unfortunately, not all chickenpox cases are routine.

In addition to the deaths, there are plenty of reports of kids having complications with chickenpox and developing skin superinfections, pneumonia, encephalitis, or having strokes.

What else does Bobby Kennedy say?

“Merck’s vaccine is only 60% effective after 5 years, leaving adults vulnerable to shingles.”

Bobby Kennedy

Actually, it has been found that one dose of the chickenpox vaccine is 100% effective at preventing severe disease!

So why do we get two doses?

“This study confirmed that varicella vaccine is effective at preventing chicken pox, with no waning noted over a 14-year period. One dose provided excellent protection against moderate to severe disease, and most cases occurred shortly after the cohort was vaccinated. The study data also suggest that varicella vaccination may reduce the risks of HZ in vaccinated children.”

Baxter et al on Long-term effectiveness of varicella vaccine: a 14-Year, prospective cohort study.

Two doses of the chickenpox vaccine are up to 94% effective at preventing any chickenpox disease, even breakthrough cases.

And again, several studies have confirmed that getting vaccinated and protected with the chickenpox vaccine decreases your risk of developing shingles!

Do you really want your kids to be at risk to get chickenpox and have a higher risk to get shingles later in life?

Of course not. That’s why you hopefully don’t listen to folks like Bobby Kennedy and you vaccinate and protect your kids.

More on Chickenpox Deaths

Why Are Vaccinated Australians Now Catching Measles?

Measles is on the rise in Australia, like many other places. But why are vaccinated Australians now catching measles?

More vaccinated Australians are catching measles because there is more measles in Australia.
More vaccinated Australians are catching measles because there is more measles in Australia.

And has this got folks thinking it is because the disease is evolving?

Why Are Vaccinated Australians Now Catching Measles?

Well, apparently it has some folks thinking that.

Remember, Andrew Wakefield has also been talking about mutant measles.

Is that what this story in Australia was about?


“In recent years, 13 Victorians have been hospitalized with measles despite having one or two vaccinations that should have made them immune. Why? Well, experts believe that because measles is so rare in Australia, we pretty much never come into contact with it, so our immune systems are starting to let their guards down and wane a little bit.”

Nathan Templeton on Measles Immunity Concerns

What is he talking about?

It’s the idea of exogenous boosting from being around natural infections. In other words, after you become immune from being vaccinated, you could get a boost in your immune protection if you are around someone with the disease.

“The exogenous boosting (EB) hypothesis posits that cell-mediated immunity is boosted for individuals reexposed to varicella-zoster virus (VZV).”

Talbird et al on Understanding the role of exogenous boosting in modeling varicella vaccination.

While this is thought to happen with chickenpox, we aren’t sure if it happens with measles.

It might, but the “problem” is that it is known that folks can have an amnestic response, so can be immune even though they have low antibody levels.

Mostly though, it is important to keep in mind that most of the people who get measles are unvaccinated, often intentionally unvaccinated.

“The key to measles elimination is increasing vaccination coverage and monitoring of measles antibody status for all ages, as well as enhancing surveillance of both domestic and overseas incidences.”

Inaida et al on Measles elimination and immunisation: national surveillance trends in Japan, 2008-2015.

So how many vaccinated Australians are getting measles?

Overall, there are 154 cases of measles in Australia so far this year.

“In Australia, the majority of measles cases are due to unvaccinated individuals becoming infected while travelling to countries in which measles is either common or there are outbreaks occurring. As measles is highly contagious, these people can then spread the disease to others, causing outbreaks, often before they are aware that they have the virus.”

Australia’s Measles Outbreaks 2019

And just as in the United States and most other countries, most of their outbreaks are started by folks who are unvaccinated.

More on Measles in Australia

Are Reported Pertussis Cases up by 114% Since 1967?

We know that we are seeing more pertussis cases these days.

Although the last few years have been better, 2012 was an especially bad year, with at least 48,277 cases and tragically, at least 4 deaths.

Are Reported Pertussis Cases up by 114% Since 1967?

How does that compare to the the pre-vaccine era?

Cases are still well below what they were in the pre-vaccine era, before we were routinely using DPT and DTaP vaccines.

Reported cases of pertussis are still down from the prevaccine era and there are far fewer deaths, from 37 deaths in 1967 to 6 in 2015.
Reported cases of pertussis are still down from the prevaccine era and there are far fewer deaths, from 37 deaths in 1967 to 6 in 2015.

What about the idea that pertussis cases are up 114% since 1967?

While that may be true, the first thing you should ask yourself when looking at Lauren Novelli’s little graph, is why did she choose 1967?

Reported Pertussis Cases Are Down Since the Pre-Vaccine Era

We did start using a new vaccine in 1967, but it was the measles vaccine, not the DPT vaccine. Vaccines against diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus had been available for some time and were used more routinely beginning in the 1950s.

And that explains the drop in pertussis cases from just over 120,000 in 1950 to about 40,000 in 1959.

More importantly, even as pertussis cases are increasing again, we aren’t seeing as many people dying from pertussis.

In 2018, there were 13,439 reported pertussis cases and 10 deaths.
In 2018, there were 13,439 reported pertussis cases and 10 deaths.

Is that because of better hygiene, sanitation, and nutrition?


We had those in most of the United States in the 1950s and 60s. The big change is that even though the current pertussis vaccine might not be perfect, having issues with waning immunity, it can still protect you from severe disease.

Vaccinating against pertussis is far from useless and there is absolutely no evidence of dormant bacteria carriers being triggered into becoming active infections.

This is pure propaganda, but you should expect no less from someone who describes themselves as an intuitive nurse and sells CBD oil.

More on Reported Pertussis Cases