Tag: anti-vaccine math

Vaccine Schedules from the 1940s to 2019

To scare parents away from vaccinating and protecting their kids, anti-vaccine folks continue to push the idea the kids get too many vaccines at too early an age.

They don’t.

When did we have a vaccine schedule when we gave just two vaccines?
When did we have a vaccine schedule when we gave just two vaccines?

They try to reinforce the idea by comparing things to the “good ol’ days,” when they think kids only got one dose of one or two vaccines.

Did they?

Vaccine Schedules from the 1940s to 2019

Let’s take a look at how the vaccine schedule has evolved over time to see how many vaccines kids used to get. Looking at the old vaccine schedules can also help you understand how we got to our current schedule.

Although not a formal schedule, the first vaccine recommendations were published in the AAP’s Special Committee on Prophylactic Procedures Against Communicable Diseases 1938 pamphlet, Routine measures for the prophylaxis of communicable diseases.

It included vaccines against diphtheria, pertussis, rabies, tetanus, tuberculosis, typhoid fever, and smallpox.

A schedule of immunizations from a 1948 AAP Round Table Discussion on the Practical and Immunological Aspects of Pediatric Immunizations
A schedule of immunizations from a 1948 AAP Round Table Discussion on the Practical and Immunological Aspects of Pediatric Immunizations

That’s the schedule from 1948!

Surprised?

Many of you were led to believe that kids only got 2 vaccines back in the day. Instead, they got more vaccines and multiple doses of those vaccines.

Multiple doses with formaldehyde inactivated vaccines which contained aluminum. And thimerosal. And far more antigens than kids are exposed to today, even though they now get many more vaccines.

My uncle got polio around the time this vaccine schedule was released in 1951, but before the first polio vaccines were being routinely used.
My uncle got polio around the time this vaccine schedule was released in 1951, but before the first polio vaccines were being routinely used.

By the early 1950s, the DPT vaccine became routine. Other vaccines were also available for special situations, including rabies, typhoid, parathyphoid, and the BCG vaccine.

And of course, we got the polio shot in 1955!

Kids got multiple doses of DPT, DT, polio, and smallpox vaccines in 1960.
Kids got multiple doses of DPT, DT, polio, and smallpox vaccines in 1960.

Although few people remember, the original polio vaccines were monovalent and only included one polio strain in each shot. So you had to get multiple shots to get protected from all three strains!

The polio shot, was used until 1962, when we switched to the oral polio vaccine. Trivalent OPV wasn’t licensed until 1963 though. Before that, kids got multiple doses of monovalent OPV, types 1, 2, and 3.

The ACIP committee came up with four different dosage schedules for measles vaccines in 1964.
The ACIP committee came up with four different dosage schedules for measles vaccines in 1964.

And for a few years, we had both inactivated and live measles vaccines…

The recommended immunization schedule by the AAP in the 1966 Red Book. The first measles vaccine was approved in 1963.

Next came the individual mumps (1967) and rubella (1969) vaccines and the combination MMR vaccine (1971).

And the end of routine vaccination with the smallpox vaccine (1972).

Eleven doses of four vaccines protected kids against seven vaccine-preventable diseases in 1983.
Eleven doses of four vaccines protected kids against seven vaccine-preventable diseases in 1983.

The Hib vaccine was added in 1985.

Twelve doses of five vaccines protected kids against eight vaccine-preventable diseases in 1989.
Twelve doses of five vaccines protected kids against eight vaccine-preventable diseases in 1989.

Next came the hepatitis B vaccine and expanded age ranges for the Hib vaccine.

Seventeen doses of five vaccines protected kids against eight vaccine-preventable diseases in 1989 (plus the later Td booster).
Nineteen doses of six vaccines protected kids against nine vaccine-preventable diseases in 1995.

What’s still missing?

Vaccines and protection against rotavirus, hepatitis A, chicken pox, flu, pneumococcal bacteria, meningococcal bacteria, and HPV. And no, they weren’t all added right after the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986, another anti-vaccine myth!

Those vaccines were added to the schedule much later:

  • Varivax – a chickenpox vaccine (1995)
  • the polio shot – we began to switch back in 1996
  • VAQTA – the first hepatitis A vaccine was approved for high risk kids in 1996, but wasn’t actually added to the routine vaccine schedule until 2006
This is the immunization we used when I finished residency...
This is the immunization we used when I finished residency…

RotaShield, the first rotavirus vaccine was approved in 1998 but was quickly withdrawn in 1999 because of an increased risk of intussusception

What’s next?

  • Prevnar, with protection against pneumococcal bacteria (2000)
  • FluMist – the nasal spray flu vaccine (2004)
  • new flu shots recommendations for all healthy infants (2004)

Is the vaccine schedule starting to look familiar?

RotaTeq and Gardasil were added to the vaccine schedule the next year, in 2007.
RotaTeq and Gardasil were added to the vaccine schedule the next year, in 2007.

Since then, Prevnar was updated to include protection against 13 strains of pneumococcal bacteria. And we got a new vaccine that covers the B strain of meningococcal disease, but otherwise there haven’t been any major changes to the vaccine schedule in a while.

The 2019 vaccine schedule.
The 2019 vaccine schedule.

Do you see 72 vaccines on the schedule?

Kids today routinely get 13 vaccines that protect them 16 vaccine-preventable diseases.

Do you see 72 doses of vaccines on the schedule?

Guess what? These folks are deliberately misleading you.
Guess what? These folks are deliberately misleading you.

Kids don’t get 72 doses of vaccines today.

That’s an inflated number that’s used to scare parents. That it is a propaganda technique should be obvious, as the folks who use it don’t use the same anti-vaccine math to inflate the number of doses from the historical schedules.

More on Vaccine Schedules from the 1940s to 2019

What’s Your Chance of Getting Measles Right Now?

It shouldn’t be a surprise that a lot of folks are thinking about their risk of getting measles right now.

But with record levels of measles cases this year, some of us are thinking about our level of risk much differently than others.

rIf you are unvaccinated and exposed to someone with measles, you risk is actually 1,000,000 times higher…

While most of us simply want to make sure we are vaccinated and protected, anti-vaccine folks are taking every opportunity to downplay their risks.

What’s Your Chance of Getting Measles Right Now?

So what’s your chance of getting measles?

“Measles is one of the world’s most contagious diseases. It is spread by coughing and sneezing, close personal contact or direct contact with infected nasal or throat secretions. The virus remains active and contagious in the air or on infected surfaces for up to 2 hours. It can be transmitted by an infected person from 4 days prior to the onset of the rash to 4 days after the rash erupts.”

WHO on Measles

That’s actually not that simple to figure out, but depends on:

Those who have had two doses, with no plans to travel, and who live in an area with no reported cases, are at extremely low risk to get measles – the risk won’t be zero until measles is eradicated.

In this kind of low risk situation, kids don’t need early doses of MMR vaccines and most adults can probably get away with just having one dose of MMR.

“Measles is highly contagious and spreads through the air when an infected person coughs or sneezes. It is so contagious that if one person has it, 9 out of 10 people of all ages around him or her will also become infected if they are not protected.”

CDC on Measles is Highly Contagious

On the other hand, if you are unvaccinated and were at the AMC Theater on Lemon Street in Fullerton, between 11 p.m. and 4 a.m. on April 25, then your chance of getting measles is about 90%!

Wait! That’s a little more than the 0.000092% chance that anti-vaccine folks are throwing around…

The odds of being hit by lightning are low because we practice storm safety and don’t run around outside when we see lightning!

To think of it another way, if you knew that your chances of getting hit by lightning were a little over 1 in a million, would that make you think it is okay to go outside and play golf during a severe thunderstorm?

Would you think the risk is so low that you could let your kids play outside if you heard thunder and saw lightning flashes nearby, or would you all rush inside?

That’s right! The risk of getting hit by lightning is low because most of us don’t take chances when we hear thunder or see lightning.

It’s the same with measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases.

The overall risk is low because most people are vaccinated and protected!

If you aren’t vaccinated and protected, as we see more and more cases, your risk of getting sick, and getting others sick, is going to continue to get higher and will always be much higher than someone who is fully vaccinated, no matter how much you want to believe in shedding, mild measles, or whatever myths help you justify keeping your kids unvaccinated and unprotected during an outbreak.

Remember, you can’t hide in the herd if you are scaring away too much the herd

Vaccines are safe, with few risks, and are obviously necessary.

You can avoid getting measles.
You can greatly reduce your family’s risk of getting measles.

Make sure your family is protected so they don’t get caught up in a measles outbreak

More on Your Chance of Getting Measles


Too Many Too Soon Revisited

You know how anti-vaccine folks like to say that kids get too many vaccines at too early an age these days?

Four generations of vaccines or vaccine misinformation?
Four generations of vaccines or vaccine misinformation?

It’s not like the ‘good old days,’ when instead of more vaccines, they just got more diseases.

But looking at the immunization schedules from the 1950s and 1960s, you should know that folks back then got a lot more vaccine doses than you have been led to believe.

Too Many Too Soon Revisited

And you know what else? Those vaccines include the “crude brew” of DPT and smallpox, which contained far more antigens per vaccine than today’s vaccines.

The 1951 immunization schedule published by the AAP.
The 1951 immunization schedule published by the AAP.

By six months, these kids got the smallpox vaccine (200 antigens) and three doses of DPT (3,002 antigens), for a total of 9,206 antigens.

And today?

They could get up to about 174 antigens, including

  • DTaP: 7 antigens * 3 doses = 21 antigens
  • IPV: 15 antigens * 3 doses = 45 antigens
  • Hib: 2 antigens * 3 doses = 6 antigens
  • Prevnar13: 14 antigens * 3 doses = 42 antigens
  • hepatitis B: 1 antigen * 3 doses = 3 antigens
  • rotavirus: 15 antigens * 3 doses = 45 antigens
  • Flu: 12 antigens * 1 dose = 12 antigens

That’s 9,032 fewer antigens or less than 2% of what they once got, even though they are protected against many more diseases!

Not worried about antigens anymore?

Just remember that in the 1950s, in addition to all of these extra antigens, except for smallpox, these vaccines were made with thimerosal and aluminum.

Not that those ingredients were dangerous then, or today. It’s just more recently that folks decided that they were scary.

But it is just important to keep in mind that it is misleading to say that kids only got 2 vaccines then, and now get 69, 72, or 74.

In fact, it’s not just misleading, it’s lying.

If you use the same anti-vaccine math, in the 1950s, they actually got at least 22 doses by age 9 or 10! And they got even more once the polio vaccine was introduced in 1955.

Vaccines don't destroy your life force...
Vaccines don’t destroy your life-force…

Anti-vaccine folks still try to downplay the number of doses of vaccines folks got back in the 1950s and 1960s though.

Why?

To scare you.

Kids do get more vaccines, but they have far fewer antigens, and more vaccines means more protection against more diseases.

In the 1950s, 60s, and 70s, kids were dying of diseases that are now vaccine preventable, including rotavirus, hepatitis A and B, chicken pox, pneumococcal meningitis, epiglottitis, Hib meningitis, and meningococcal meningitis, etc.

What about the idea that all of the extra vaccine doses were added right after the passage of the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986?

Believe it or not, it was almost nine years, 1995, before a new vaccine (Varivax) was added to the immunization schedule. Others were slowly added after that, including:

  • hepatitis A (1996)
  • rotavirus (1998)
  • Prevnar (2000)
  • Menactra (2006)
  • Tdap (2006)
  • Gardasil (2006)

The biggest change? The one that helps boost the numbers of doses so that anti-vaccine folks can try and say that kids get 72 doses of vaccines?

That was when we started recommending flu shots for healthy kids, beginning with infants for the 2004-05 flu season. Remember, nearly a third of their list is just flu shots…

What about Hib and Hep B? They were both added right before the passage of the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986.

Guess what?

Nothing about their little anti-vaccine memes are true.

Vaccines are safe, with few risks, and are necessary.

More on Too Many Too Soon Revisited


Dr. Bob Puts the Nail in the Coffin of the Herd Immunity Argument

Dr. Bob Sears, who actually wrote a book about vaccines, seems to think that he and his podcasting sidekick have put the nail in the coffin “of trying to use the herd immunity argument to justify coerced vaccinated.”

Dr. Bob seems to think that herd immunity doesn't apply to vaccines.

The meme he shared even includes the hashtag stating that herd immunity doesn’t apply to vaccines.

Dr. Bob Puts the Nail in the Coffin of the Herd Immunity Argument

While arguing against the idea of herd immunity and for coerced vaccination are common among anti-vaccine folks, neither is true.

Herd immunity is real and no-one is going to force anyone to vaccinate their kids. Vaccine mandates do not mean forced vaccination.

What about the idea that “all vaccines wane within about 2-15 years, leaving vaccinated children & adults unprotected?”

If that were true, then wouldn’t everyone who got sick in latest outbreaks be vaccinated? Why are most folks unvaccinated?

So we are either getting a lot of outbreaks because of waning immunity or your titers are getting boosted because you are getting exposed to so much natural disease. Got it?

While waning immunity is an issue for some vaccines, like mumps and pertussis, the primary and secondary failure rates are still not as bad as Dr. Bob suggests, which is why, in an outbreak, the attack rate of disease is always higher among those who are unvaccinated and unprotected.

The numbers don't always add up correctly when anti-vax folks try to do math.
The numbers don’t always add up correctly when anti-vax folks try to do math.

Is herd immunity the main argument that’s made when experts suggest we need stronger vaccine laws? I always thought the main argument is that folks should just vaccinate and protect their kids, but maintaining herd immunity so that your intentionally unvaccinated kids don’t put everyone else at risk is a good reason too.

Does everyone see the problem with Melissa Floyd’s math? This probably won’t be on the SAT, but you still want to get this right…

Like many others are doing right now, she used state level data. Since many of the folks who don’t vaccinate their kids cluster together in the same communities and schools, the “2% of those filing for exemptions” end up making up 10, 20, or even 30% of some school’s student population.

“This means if you are a primary non-responder, you are walking around every day with a false sense of security, clinically unvaccinated for that particular disease.”

Melissa Floyd

This is the whole point of herd immunity!

Because vaccines aren’t 100% effective, we can walk around all day without actually thinking about it much, hoping that we can rely on the fact that most other people are also vaccinated and protected. That keeps disease out of our community or herd.

The system typically breaks down though, not because vaccines aren’t effective enough, but because too many folks don’t get vaccinated.

“A 2011 article in “Vaccines”, edited by Stanley Plotkin, says, “Much of the early theoretical work on herd immunity assumed that vaccines induced solid immunity against infection…” Theoretical… Assumed…”

Melissa Floyd

She should have read the whole article, or at least used the whole quote…

“Much of the early theoretical work on herd immunity assumed that vaccines induce solid immunity against infection and that populations mix at random, consistent with the simple herd immunity threshold for random vaccination of Vc = (1-1/R0), using the symbol Vc for the critical minimum proportion to be vaccinated (assuming 100% vaccine effectiveness). More recent research has addressed the complexities of imperfect immunity, heterogeneous populations, nonrandom vaccination, and freeloaders.”

Herd Immunity: A Rough Guide

It doesn’t say what she thinks it says…

“Indeed, one might argue that herd immunity, in the final analysis, is about protecting society itself.”

Herd Immunity: A Rough Guide

So why haven’t we eradicated measles like we said we would?

“What’s funny is after the measles vaccine was licensed in 1963, the medical community declared a goal of eradicating measles by 1967. But 1967 came and went and it still wasn’t gone, 1977, 1987, 2000… the dates kept getting pushed, and the result was always the same. Meanwhile they continued to increase the hypothesized “herd immunity threshold”, eventually winding up at the extremely high 95% you hear today. “

Melissa Floyd

That’s actually a good question.

What happened to the previous goals of eliminating measles?

“In 1966, the USA began an effort to eradicate the disease within its own borders. After a series of successes and setbacks, in 2000, 34 years after the initial goal was announced, measles was declared no longer to be endemic in the USA.”

Orenstein et al on Eradicating measles: a feasible goal?

Along the way, we have gone from an estimated 100 million cases and 5.8 million deaths in 1980 and an estimated 44 million cases and 1.1 deaths in 1995 to “just” 7 million cases and 89,780 deaths in 2016.

“Under the Global Vaccine Action Plan, measles and rubella are targeted for elimination in five WHO Regions by 2020.”

Measles

While there is doubt that we can truly eradicate measles with the current vaccine, we can certainly control and eliminate measles if folks stop listening to anti-vaccine propaganda and they get vaccinated and protected.

More on Dr. Bob and His Herd Immunity Arguments