Tag: lightning strike

What’s Your Chance of Getting Measles Right Now?

It shouldn’t be a surprise that a lot of folks are thinking about their risk of getting measles right now.

But with record levels of measles cases this year, some of us are thinking about our level of risk much differently than others.

rIf you are unvaccinated and exposed to someone with measles, you risk is actually 1,000,000 times higher…

While most of us simply want to make sure we are vaccinated and protected, anti-vaccine folks are taking every opportunity to downplay their risks.

What’s Your Chance of Getting Measles Right Now?

So what’s your chance of getting measles?

“Measles is one of the world’s most contagious diseases. It is spread by coughing and sneezing, close personal contact or direct contact with infected nasal or throat secretions. The virus remains active and contagious in the air or on infected surfaces for up to 2 hours. It can be transmitted by an infected person from 4 days prior to the onset of the rash to 4 days after the rash erupts.”

WHO on Measles

That’s actually not that simple to figure out, but depends on:

Those who have had two doses, with no plans to travel, and who live in an area with no reported cases, are at extremely low risk to get measles – the risk won’t be zero until measles is eradicated.

In this kind of low risk situation, kids don’t need early doses of MMR vaccines and most adults can probably get away with just having one dose of MMR.

“Measles is highly contagious and spreads through the air when an infected person coughs or sneezes. It is so contagious that if one person has it, 9 out of 10 people of all ages around him or her will also become infected if they are not protected.”

CDC on Measles is Highly Contagious

On the other hand, if you are unvaccinated and were at the AMC Theater on Lemon Street in Fullerton, between 11 p.m. and 4 a.m. on April 25, then your chance of getting measles is about 90%!

Wait! That’s a little more than the 0.000092% chance that anti-vaccine folks are throwing around…

The odds of being hit by lightning are low because we practice storm safety and don’t run around outside when we see lightning!

To think of it another way, if you knew that your chances of getting hit by lightning were a little over 1 in a million, would that make you think it is okay to go outside and play golf during a severe thunderstorm?

Would you think the risk is so low that you could let your kids play outside if you heard thunder and saw lightning flashes nearby, or would you all rush inside?

That’s right! The risk of getting hit by lightning is low because most of us don’t take chances when we hear thunder or see lightning.

It’s the same with measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases.

The overall risk is low because most people are vaccinated and protected!

If you aren’t vaccinated and protected, as we see more and more cases, your risk of getting sick, and getting others sick, is going to continue to get higher and will always be much higher than someone who is fully vaccinated, no matter how much you want to believe in shedding, mild measles, or whatever myths help you justify keeping your kids unvaccinated and unprotected during an outbreak.

Remember, you can’t hide in the herd if you are scaring away too much the herd

Vaccines are safe, with few risks, and are obviously necessary.

You can avoid getting measles.
You can greatly reduce your family’s risk of getting measles.

Make sure your family is protected so they don’t get caught up in a measles outbreak

More on Your Chance of Getting Measles


Comparing Lightning Strikes to Measles Deaths

Have you ever heard that your child has more of a chance of getting hit by lightning than getting measles?

Since getting struck by lightning is rare, folks like to use it in comparisons to other things that they also think are low risk when trying to make a point.

There are problems with this type of argument though.

Understanding Risk Perception

In an age when many folks are overly anxious about things, it is important to understand the difference between real and perceived risks. Unfortunately, our biases often lead us to worry about the wrong things, sometimes with tragic consequences.

“No intervention is absolutely risk free. Even the journey to a physician’s office with the intention to receive a vaccination carries the risk of getting injured in an accident. With regards to risks of vaccination per se, one has to distinguish between real and perceived or alleged risks.”

Heininger on A risk–benefit analysis of vaccination

Vaccines have risks, but they are small risks, as we know that vaccines are safe and necessary and the decision to skip or delay your child’s vaccines carries with it a much greater risk.

Comparing Lightning Strikes to Vaccine Preventable Diseases

How common or rare do you think it is to get hit by lightning?

  • odds of being hit by lightning – 1 in 1,171,000 (each year)
  • odds of ever being hit by lightning – 1 in 14,600 (lifetime risk)
  • on average, 26 people die after being struck by lightning each year (since 2007), which is down from a recent historical average of 45 deaths per year (30 year average) and way down from when we used to see 400 lightning strike deaths each year before 1950
  • on average, 252 people are injured after being struck by lightning each year

Actually, just since 2000, at least 5 people have died of measles in Canada.
Actually, just since 2000, at least 6 people have died of measles in Canada.

Although 26 people dying after lightning strikes sounds like way too many to me, especially since one recent death was a 7-year-old boy in Tennessee playing under a tree, with 1 in 1,171,000 odds of getting hit, it sounds like we are pretty safe.

But is it fair to use those odds to justify your decision to keep your kids unvaccinated?

Of course not!

Why is our risk of getting struck by lightning so low?

What happens when we hear thunder or see lightning?

When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!

What happens when a thunder storm approaches and you are at your kids soccer or baseball game?

“Postpone or suspend activity if a thunderstorm appears imminent before or during an activity or contest (irrespective of whether lightning is seen or thunder heard) until the hazard has passed. Signs of imminent thunderstorm activity are darkening clouds, high winds, and thunder or lightning activity.”

UIL on Lightning Safety

Many ball fields now have lightning detectors to alert officials of nearby storms. And just about everyone has access to weather apps on a smart phone that can alert them to an approaching thunder storm or nearby lightning strikes.

The point is that most of us understand that lightning is dangerous, so we go far out of our away to avoid getting hit. The risk of getting hit by lightning isn’t 1 in 1,171,000 with folks running around outside waving golf clubs in the air during thunder storms or sitting on their roofs under an umbrella watching the storm.

The risk of getting hit by lightning is 1 in 1,171,000 because most of us go inside once we know lightning is nearby.

“Based on the media reports of the fatal incidents, many victims were either headed to safety at the time of the fatal strike or were just steps away from safety. Continued efforts are needed to convince people to get inside a safe place before the lightning threat becomes significant. For many activities, situational awareness and proper planning are essential to safety.”

A Detailed Analysis of Lightning Deaths in the United States from 2006 through 2017

And the same is true with measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases. They aren’t as common as they once were because most of us are vaccinated and protected.

If you skip or delay your child’s vaccines, you will increase the risk that they will get one of these vaccine-preventable diseases. And you will increase the risk that they will get someone else sick.

“I also warn them not to share their fears with their neighbors, because if too many people avoid the MMR, we’ll likely see the diseases increase significantly.”

Dr. Bob Sears in The Vaccine Book

And if enough people don’t get vaccinated, herd immunity fails, and we will see a return of pre-vaccine era levels of disease.

What to Know About Vaccines and Risk Perception

Folks often misuse lightning strikes when they think about risks, not understanding that the risk of getting hit by lightning is low because we take a lot of precautions to avoid getting hit by lightning.

More on Vaccines and Risk Perception