Tag: Dunning-Kruger effect

The Dunning-Kruger Awards

Bob Sears posted his pic wearing Mickey Mouse ears a month before the big Disneyland measles outbreak...
This was posted a month before the big Disneyland measles outbreak…

Most folks understand, or think they understand, the Dunning-Kruger effect.

“Poor performers—and we are all poor performers at some things—fail to see the flaws in their thinking or the answers they lack.”

We Are All Confident Idiots

Not surprisingly, there are plenty of great examples of the Dunning-Kruger effect among vocal vaccine deniers.

The Dunning-Kruger Awards

But who leads the pack?

Smarter than the entire New York Public Health Department?

I don’t think so…

Yes, Forrest Maready, who came up with the Crooked Face Theory of vaccine injury, now considers himself to be an expert on polio.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. thinks that he is cursed with too much knowledge about vaccines…

Kelly Brogan, a holistic psychiatrist, got her case study published in the Advances in Mind-Body Medicine journal. History making? That’s about as history making as her vaccine paper that was published in the journal, Alternative Therapies in Health and Medicine.

Full stop. There is a lot of good information on the Internet, but most folks who say they did their research about vaccines on Google choose “to accept only information that supports his or her position, and ignores or dismisses information in conflict with it.”

Will Jim Meehan ever understand vaccines better?

Will anyone that listens to these folks?

Don't let Goop's mistake become your mistake.

Gwyneth Paltrow and Goop made one mistake – thinking that they could give health advice.

The creator of the PEACH anti-vaccine safety manual that has been distributed in Orthodox Jewish communities spent years gathering anti-vaccine propaganda...
The creator of the PEACH anti-vaccine safety manual that has been distributed in Orthodox Jewish communities spent years gathering anti-vaccine propaganda…

While the average pediatrician doesn’t actively investigate vaccine safety, do you know who does? Real scientists and researchers…

Whether they put all of the anti-vaccine propaganda they gather into a binder or a vaccine guide on the Internet, these folks are simply misinformed about vaccines.

Don’t look to them to help get you educated about vaccines.

Dunning Kruger Awards

A Crazymother Visits Her Pediatrician to Talk About Vaccines

There is a new Crazymothers video floating around and it is everything that’s wrong with the modern anti-vaccine movement.

What is so shocking about a pediatrician educating a mother about the importance of vaccinating and protecting her child?
What is so shocking about a pediatrician talking to a mother about the importance of vaccinating and protecting her child?

On the fence parents are being told ‘this this and this’ by their pediatricians and then going to someone who has found Internet fame making Crazymothers videos to find out if they are true.

As you might expect, her videos include:

She even defends Andrew Wakefield and doesn’t believe that people died of measles once MMR vaccination rates went down after Wakefield’s study was published.

A Crazymother Visits Her Pediatrician to Talk About Vaccines

Crazymothers?

As someone who is mindful that language can promote stigmas and stereotypes, it is not a term that I chose.

It is the name of a parenting group.

Wait until you hear what this pediatrician has to say when a Crazymother informs her she will no longer be vaccinating!

“Ok, today is just a hepatitis vaccine.”

I have made the decision that I no longer want my kids to be vaccinated.

“At all?”

At all. So, I know that’s not what you want to hear.

“It isn’t. It scares me. It scares me a lot.”

I know. I hear that, but I also have to do what I feel is best.

“Is there a specific concern that you have?”

Oh, there is a lot of things.

“What are they?”

There’s a lot. I’m worried about a lot. I wasn’t planning on having this conversation today. I didn’t know he was getting a shot. I wasn’t prepared. I thought he coming in for a blood test today. There’s a lot of reached out and met a lot of other moms who just have a lot of really sad stories and I just kind of started doing my own research and I just don’t feel like it is best for my kids and … I’m very concerned for his health and him getting vaccinated with all of these problems that he already has isn’t going to benefit him right now so I may change my mind down the road.

That last paragraph says an awful lot about why some parents are choosing to delay or skip their children’s vaccines:

Mostly they are scared. Hopefully this mom does some more research, gets more answers to her questions, and does change her mind soon.

Crazymothers Propaganda

The video, most which I have transcribed, also illustrates why it is important to be prepared when you talk to your pediatrician about vaccines.  After all, you can’t get your questions about vaccines answered if you don’t ask any questions.

“So my job at every visit is to let you know what you are declining and what we’re trying to protect against. It’s also very important if you decide not to immunize to remember that he’s at risk for a lot of other things so if he gets a fever its going to mean something different to mean than a child who is fully immunized as a fever… so if you call us after hours and he has a fever, make sure you tell us, oh by the way, he isn’t immunized…”

How does it mean something different if a child is intentionally not vaccinated?

It is actually very simple.

They are at increased risk for vaccine-preventable diseases.

While a vaccine-preventable disease should be in the back of your mind for any kid if their symptoms fit the disease, since vaccines aren’t 100% effective, they move higher up your list of possibilities if you know the child is unvaccinated and unprotected.

“I also just want to tell you that there’s a very big difference between anecdotal evidence and population based evidence, so just because someone has a sad story doesn’t mean that what happened to them is truly related to the vaccine.”

yeah

“And also keep in mind that in terms of autism, the study that was done in England years ago that supposedly linked autism to the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine was tainted. It was funded by anti-vaccine lawyers, was retracted by every single person that offered that study and because of that study, children didn’t get the MMR and many died.”

Crazymothers – OMG, I can’t even with this… She said that children didn’t get the MMR and many died. That’s not true. If you look at the cases of measles after 1998 when the Lancet study was published the measles cases actually went down. Nobody died. Nobody has died in America for years and years from the measles. It is completely silly.

Nobody died?

Measles cases went down?

“Between 2001 and 2013 there was a sharp rise in the number of UK measles cases, and three people died.”

Current measles risks in the UK and Europe

As most folks now, before Wakefield was stripped of his medical license, he practiced in the United Kingdom, and not surprisingly, that’s where we saw a big effect on MMR rates. They went down and measles cases went up.

MMR vaccination rates had dropped below 80% by 2003, when the first measles outbreaks in the UK began. They didn't fully recover until 2012.
MMR vaccination rates had dropped below 80% by 2003, when the first measles outbreaks in the UK began. They didn’t fully recover until 2012.

But even as measles cases and deaths have gone down globally, measles outbreaks and measles deaths have been much worse in the rest of Europe.

Even in the United States, cases have gone way up since we hit a record low of 37 cases in 2004 and there have been deaths, with the last in 2015.

“Again, this was very contentious and you would not get consensus from all members of the group on this, but that is my feeling, that the, the risk of this particular syndrome developing is related to the combined vaccine, the MMR, rather than the single vaccines.”

Andrew Wakefield

It is amazing how many times you hear the phrase “that’s not true” in this video about things that are so easy to confirm as facts.

“Continue to give it some thought because to me vaccines are modern miracles and it scares me to death to have people not getting vaccinated… He’ll probably be okay, but that’s because I’ve vaccinated my kids the other day, so we’re protecting your kid… The more people who stop doing it, forget about it, it’s going to go back to the old days where people are dying all of the time.”

Crazymothers – There’s that herd immunity myth. She says that your kid is going to be okay because I’m doing the right thing. I’m vaccinating my child. And anybody who studies this knows that’s not true! Herd immunity is a myth. Go outside and talk to a 30-year-old, 40-year-old, 50-year-old, who hasn’t been recently vaccinated and you can clearly see, plain as day…

As far as I know, we have indoor plumbing, we have sewage systems, we have clean water, and we have access to whole foods, we have ways to supplement with vitamins and minerals, we have all of these amazing things and that is what actually brings disease rates down.

Proper sanitation, sewage systems, all of the modern things that we take for granted – that is what is actually bringing the disease down, because clearly, in under-developed countries, we still see the diseases rampant, right?

Herd immunity myth?

The idea that herd immunity is a myth because adults aren’t vaccinated is silly.

Adults were either born in the pre-vaccine era and likely have natural immunity or were born in the vaccine era and are vaccinated and immune, as many vaccines provide life-long immunity. That’s why adults get few boosters or catch-up vaccines.

But herd immunity is disease specific, so when we talk about herd immunity for measles, it doesn’t matter if someone has immunity against hepatitis A or Hib. Also, some vaccines, like Hib and Prevnar, have indirect effects, protecting adults even though they aren’t vaccinated, because vaccinated kids are less likely to become infectious.

There is only clearly one modern thing that that anti-vaccine folks take for granted – vaccines.

My uncle got polio around 1950, in Brooklyn, just before the first polio vaccine was developed.

You know what?

They had indoor plumbing, sewage systems, clean water, whole foods, vitamins and minerals, and medicine – he was hospitalized for six months – yet many people still died of polio.

In 1951, during the first season of I Love Lucy, you can see that they had indoor plumbing. Surprised?
In 1951, during the first season of I Love Lucy, you can see that they had indoor plumbing. Surprised?

At that time, during the pre-vaccine era, many people also died of measles, tetanus, pertussis, chicken pox, and many other diseases that are now prevented with vaccines.

In 1954, Lucille Ball and Desi Arnaz asked everyone to “give every dime and dollar” they could spare to fight polio.
In 1954, Lucille Ball and Desi Arnaz asked everyone to “give every dime and dollar” they could spare to fight polio.

And unfortunately, many under-developed countries still don’t have proper sanitation, sewage systems, or good nutrition, but do you know what they also don’t have?

Polio.

We are very close to eradicating polio all over the world. Only two countries, Afghanistan and Pakistan still have cases of wild polio today. And so far this year, there have only been 11 cases. Did every other country in the world suddenly get proper sanitation, sewage systems, and good nutrition? Is that why we are so close to eradicating polio?

Of course not. It’s the polio vaccine.

Vaccines work. Vaccines are safe and necessary. They have few risks and many benefits. You won’t learn any of that from the Crazymothers group and that’s likely why you have made the decision that you no longer want your kids to be vaccinated.

What to Know About Crazymothers Propaganda

Don’t let Crazymothers propaganda scare you away from vaccinating and protecting your kids.

More on Crazymothers Propaganda

Are Anti-Vaccine Folks Smarter Than the Rest of Us?

For the overwhelming majority of us, it seems like a simple decision – get your kids vaccinated and protected and avoid all of the risks of vaccine-preventable diseases.

After all, we understand that vaccines are safe and necessary.

But folks who choose to skip or delay vaccines want to do what is best for their kids too, even as they come to the exact opposite decision, so who is making the smarter choice?

Are Anti-Vaccine Folks Smarter Than the Rest of Us?

Not surprisingly, anti-vaccine folks think they are smarter.

Why?

“In the end we are left with a powerful sense of knowledge – false knowledge. Confirmation bias leads to a high level of confidence, we feel we are right in our gut. And when confronted with someone saying we are wrong, or promoting an alternate view, some people become hostile.

The Dunning-Kruger effect is not just a curiosity of psychology, it touches on a critical aspect of the default mode of human thought, and a major flaw in our thinking. It also applies to everyone – we are all at various places on that curve with respect to different areas of knowledge. You may be an expert in some things, and competent in others, but will also be toward the bottom of the curve in some areas of knowledge.”

Steven Novella on Lessons from Dunning-Kruger

While it is easy to blame it on the Dunning-Kruger effect, a study that appeared in the July 2004 issue of Pediatrics, Children who have received no vaccines: who are they and where do they live?, is often used by anti-vaccine folks to reinforce the idea that they are smarter.

“Undervaccinated children tended to be black, to have a younger mother who was not married and did not have a college degree, to live in a household near the poverty level, and to live in a central city. Unvaccinated children tended to be white, to have a mother who was married and had a college degree, to live in a household with an annual income exceeding 75,000 dollars, and to have parents who expressed concerns regarding the safety of vaccines and indicated that medical doctors have little influence over vaccination decisions for their children”

Children who have received no vaccines: who are they and where do they live?

But the part of the study that is often quoted is comparing unvaccinated vs undervaccinated.

In the same study, the education level of unvaccinated vs vaccinated is virtually the same.

And the differences for the unvaccinated vs undervaccinated kids was about their living near the poverty level. If these families grew up with less money, they likely had less opportunities to go to school, and unfortunately, had less opportunities to keep their kids up-to-date on their vaccines.

One study, Maternal characteristics and hospital policies as risk factors for nonreceipt of hepatitis B vaccine in the newborn nursery, did seem to associate a higher education level with refusing the newborn hepatitis B vaccine, but an even bigger factor was being born in a facility that actually had a policy that offered the vaccine.

“Likewise, vaccine refusal now appears to be less a function of socioeconomic status than it once was. Previously, maternal education was strongly associated with vaccine refusal, but now mothers without a high school diploma are even more likely than college graduates to have unvaccinated children . Also, unvaccinated children are no longer found primarily in the highest income households (perhaps a function of income data being top-coded at $50,000), but now are equally likely to live in households with more moderate (or even below poverty) incomes.”

Laura Blakeslee on Trends and Characteristics of Unvaccinated Children in the United States : The National Immunization Survey, 2002 − 2010

Other studies have either showed a higher level of college graduates for those who vaccinated their kids or no difference.

What about all of the experts in the anti-vaccine movement? Remember that the heroes and so called experts of the the anti-vaccine movement mostly includes celebrities, some doctors and scientists who are practicing way out of their field of expertise when they talk about vaccines, and others whose work is not supported by the great majority of experts in their field.

That’s not necessarily the end of the story though.

Yet another study (a small survey), Parental Delay or Refusal of Vaccine Doses, Childhood Vaccination Coverage at 24 Months of Age, and the Health Belief Model, found that as compared to parents who vaccinated their kids, those who delayed or refused vaccines:

  • were less likely to think that vaccines were necessary
  • were less likely to think that their kids would get a disease if they weren’t vaccinated
  • were less likely to believe that vaccines are safe
  • were more likely to believe that vaccines caused serious side effects
  • were more likely to believe that children get too many vaccines

And surprisingly, considering that the above things are basically anti-vaccine talking points that are easily disproven, they were actually more likely to have gone to college and to be a college graduate. It is not a surprise that they were less likely to have a good relationship with their doctor and were less likely to believe that their doctor had their child’s best interest at heart.

Parents unknowingly gave their infants teething powder made with mercury, causing pink disease or mercury poisoning.
Parents unknowingly gave their infants teething powder made with mercury, causing pink disease or mercury poisoning. Ironically, a decrease in illiteracy levels might have been the cause.

So maybe some anti-vaccine parents are indeed well-educated about some things, but that just gets us back to the Dunning-Kruger effect, as they certainly aren’t making smart decisions about vaccines.

Fortunately, this is still a very small, although very vocal, minority of people, as most parents vaccinate and protect their kids.

What to Know About Anti-Vaccine Intelligence and Education

Parents who choose to skip or delay their child’s vaccines are not making smart decisions about vaccines.

More on Anti-Vaccine Intelligence and Education