Tag: herd immunity

We Know What Happens If We Stop Vaccinating

It’s no surprise.

If we stop vaccinating, diseases that are now vaccine preventable will come back.

How do we know?

Because it has happened already.

We Know What Happens If We Stop Vaccinating

It has happened a lot, actually.

Remember when Sweden stopped using the DPT vaccine?

Between 1979 and 1996, Sweden suspended vaccination against pertussis because of concerns about the DPT vaccine.

Justus Ström‘s data was wrong…

And what happened?

“In 1979, the Swedish medical society abandoned whole-cell pertussis vaccine and decided to wait for a new, safer, more effective vaccine – a strategy that was soon adopted as national policy. During 1980-83, annual incidence for children aged 0–4 years increased to 3370 per 100000, with rates of serious complications approaching global rates. In subsequent years, Sweden reported more than 10000 cases annually with an incidence exceeding 100 per 100000, comparable to rates reported in some developing countries.”

Ganarosa et al on Impact of anti-vaccine movements on pertussis control: the untold story.

Pertussis came back.

In fact, endemic pertussis came back.

“Our evaluation of pertussis in the unimmunized child population gave an answer to the question of whether pertussis nowadays is a harmless disease which does not demand general vaccination. The present situation regarding pertussis in Sweden and the low efficacy of the antimicrobial treatment indicate an urgent need to prevent the disease by general vaccination as soon as a safe and effective vaccine is available.”

Romanus et al on Pertussis in Sweden after the cessation of general immunization in 1979.

Of course, they already had a safe and effective vaccine at the time. All of the claims against the whole cell pertussis vaccine ended up being untrue.

The same thing happened when Japan stopped using the MMR vaccine.

“Due directly to these gaps in ‘herd’ immunization resulting from politicized transitions in vaccination policy by the government, there were outbreaks of rubella with 17,050 cases reported between the years of 2012 and 2014, and 45 cases of congenital rubella syndrome reported to the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Diseases from week 1, 2012 to week 40, 2014.”

Yusuke Tanaka on History repeats itself in Japan: Failure to learn from rubella epidemic leads to failure to provide the HPV vaccine

What happened in Ukraine when immunization rates dropped in the 1990s? There were 17,387 cases of diphtheria and 646 deaths from 1992 to 1997. Also high, were cases of measles (over 23,000 cases in 1993) and pertussis (almost 7,000 cases in 1993).

Remember the measles outbreaks that spread across Europe in 2010 to 11, leading to about 30,000 cases of measles each year, and at least 28 deaths?

That should have been enough to warn folks, but it didn’t.

Things are much worse now, with over 120 measles deaths in Europe over the past few years.

More recently, in Venezuela, shortages of most things have led to ongoing epidemics of measles and diphtheria, a “potential for reemergence of poliomyelitis,” and a risk to neighboring countries.

“Officials say the low coverage rate and widespread transmission of the virus is due to many factors, including transport costs for those in rural areas, a high number of people with weakened immune systems, such people living with HIV and tuberculosis – and vaccine refusal.”

Ukraine: Red Cross deployed to help contain largest measles outbreak in Europe in four years

And once again, there are measles outbreaks in Ukraine. This time, they have spread to many other countries, fueling outbreaks in Israel and the United States.

We know what happens if we stop vaccinating. Get vaccinated and stop the outbreaks.

Vaccines are safe, with few risks, and are very obviously necessary.

More on What Happens If We Stop Vaccinating

What Percentage of Adults Are up to Date on Their Immunizations?

Are you up to date on your vaccines?

What about everyone else?

What Percentage of Adults Are up to Date on Their Immunizations?

Can you guess why this question comes up so often?

Yup.

There is no plan to force adults to get vaccinated...
There is no plan to force adults to get vaccinated…

It’s about herd immunity.

If most adults aren’t immune because they haven’t been vaccinated or don’t get boosters, then since we aren’t seeing that many outbreaks, herd immunity itself must be a myth.

The thing is though, adults were either born in the pre-vaccine era and likely earned their natural immunity or were born in the vaccine era and are vaccinated and immune.

It is also important to understand that herd immunity is disease specific, so when we talk about herd immunity for measles, it doesn’t matter if everyone has herd immunity levels of protection against hepatitis A or Hib.

And adults do get a few boosters and some vaccines that are only recommended for adults, including the shingles vaccine.

In addition, some vaccines, like Hib and Prevnar, have indirect effects, protecting adults even though they aren’t vaccinated, because vaccinated kids are less likely to become infectious.

But back to the original question, how many adults are up to date on their immunizations?

“While modest gains occurred in vaccination coverage for pneumococcal, Tdap, hepatitis A (persons with chronic liver conditions), herpes zoster, and HPV vaccination, coverage did not improve for other vaccinations and many adults remained unvaccinated with recommended vaccines. “

Vaccination Coverage Among Adults in the United States, National Health Interview Survey, 2016

While most adults are immune to what were once common childhood diseases, like measles and mumps, because they were either vaccinated or had the disease naturally, many could do better with newer vaccines that weren’t available when they were kids.

More on Adult Vaccination Statistics

False Balance About Vaccines at the Chicago Tribune

As more folks are calling out vocal vaccine deniers, many are also learning the role of the media in helping fuel the anti-vaccine movement.

“Whatever you think about Andrew Wakefield, the real villains of the MMR scandal are the media.”

Ben Goldacre on The MMR story that wasn’t

Believe it or not, there likely would not have been a big scare over the DPT vaccine in the 1970s and 80s or concerns about the MMR vaccine if the media hadn’t given so much attention to the anti-vaccine players involved.

False Balance About Vaccines at the Chicago Tribune

Folks in the media have learned their lesson though, right?

“Balance? There is no balance. There is mainstream, superstrong consensus about the value of vaccination, and on the other side … nothing else, since there is no other side. The media have made parents worry about vaccines in a lame effort to provide balance and all points of view.”

Arthur Caplan on There is no other side to the vaccine debate

Well, apparently not all of them…

If you are quoting anti-vaccine activists, then you are doing something wrong...
If you are quoting anti-vaccine activists, then you are doing something wrong…

Why would the Chicago Tribune devote nearly 20% of an article to a parent who is against vaccines, especially without correcting her misinformation?

Why haven’t they learned that spreading this kind of misinformation is what scares parents away from vaccinating and protecting their kids in the first place?

Are vaccinations about parent choice or public safety? That’s the title of the Chicago Tribune article. And maybe that’s why Illinois is among top 5 states for measles as debate heats up, the rest of the title…

How about we give parents a chance to make informed choices without being influenced by propaganda and misinformation?

More on False Balance About Vaccines at the Chicago Tribune

Why Did Anti-Vaccine Folks Applaud Rand Paul’s Testimony at the Senate Health Committee Hearing on Vaccines and Outbreaks?

Wait, what?

Why Did Anti-Vaccine Folks Applaud Rand Paul's Testimony at the Senate Health Committee Hearing on Vaccines and Outbreaks?

Anti-vaccine folks actually applauded Rand Paul’s testimony at the Senate Health Committee Hearing on Vaccines and Outbreaks?

Why Did Anti-Vaccine Folks Applaud Rand Paul’s Testimony at the Senate Health Committee Hearing on Vaccines and Outbreaks?

Surprisingly, many of the things he said weren’t anti-vaccine.

I guess they ignored those parts…

  • …given the choice, I do believe that the benefits of most vaccines vastly outweigh the risks.
  • I’m not hear to say don’t vaccinate your kids… if this hearing is for persuasion, I’m all for the persuasion. I vaccinated myself. I vaccinated my kids.
  • For myself and my kids, I believe that the benefits of vaccines greatly outweigh the risks…

So why were they cheering?

Because that’s not all he said…

“Today, instead of persuasion, many governments have taken to mandating a whole host of vaccines, including vaccines for non-lethal diseases.”

Sen Rand Paul

While some vaccine-preventable diseases are more deadly than others, they can all be deadly. From rotavirus and HPV to hepatitis A, these diseases can kill people.

Which vaccine-preventable disease does he think is non-lethal?

“Sometimes these vaccine mandates have run amok. As when the government mandated a rotavirus vaccine that was later recalled because it was causing intestinal blockage in children.”

Sen Rand Paul

That’s an interesting example of “the government” that has run amok…

Which “government” mandated that the original rotavirus vaccine be given to children?

As Senator Paul hopefully understands, the Federal government doesn’t mandate vaccines for anyone. And since it must be given at such a young age, even states don’t actually mandate that the rotavirus vaccine be given to children…

Even today, there are no mandates for the rotavirus vaccine.

If there were, it still wouldn’t mean giving up your Liberty, after all, vaccine mandates don’t mean forced vaccination.

“It is wrong to say that there are no risks to vaccines. Even the government admits that children are sometimes injured by vaccines. Since 1988, over $4 billion has been paid out from the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program. Despite the government admitting to and paying $4 billion for vaccine injuries, no informed consent is used or required when you vaccinate your child. This may be the only medical procedure in today’s medical world where an informed consent is not required. “

Sen Rand Paul

No one says that there are no risks to vaccines. That’s a classic anti-vaccine talking point.

What folks actually say is that vaccines are safe, with few serious risks.

And the $4 billion that Rand Paul and anti-vaccine folks often talk about has been paid out over more than 30 years, during a time that we have given nearly 300 million doses of vaccines each and every year!

But what’s that he said about informed consent?

Why wouldn’t informed consent be given or be required before getting a vaccine?

Of course, parents get informed consent before getting vaccines.

They don’t get informed consent if they decide to skip or delay their child’s vaccines after getting bad information.

“Now proponents of mandatory government vaccination argue that parents who refuse to vaccinate their children risk spreading these diseases to the immunocompromised community. There doesn’t seem to be enough evidence of this happening for it to be recorded as a statistic, but it could happen. But if the fear of this is valid, are we to find that next we will be mandating flu vaccine?”

Sen Rand Paul

Lastly, why didn’t Sen Paul find evidence that intentionally unvaccinated kids are spreading disease to the immunocompromised community?

Maybe he didn’t look…

It happens.

Do we need it to happen more often so that it becomes a large statistic before he and others will advocate that folks get vaccinated to attend school?

Do you understand have a better understand now why anti-vaccine folks were cheering after his testimony?

“If you believe in Liberty, that’s fine, don’t get immunized. But I don’t think that you need to necessarily expose others to disease.”

Sen Bill Cassidy

It should give you a better understanding both of Rand Paul’s ideas and those of the anti-vaccine movement.

More on Rand Paul’s Testimony at the Senate Health Committee Hearing on Vaccines and Outbreaks