Vaccines and the Latest Autism Prevalence Report

The Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network recently released a report that showed a 15% increase in autism prevalence rates.

What does that have to do with vaccines?

Well, nothing, unless you are an anti-vaccine group that is continually trying to associate vaccines with autism.

Trends in Autism Prevalence

Just about everyone understands that autism prevalence rates have been increasing over the years. It is what makes some folks think that there is a real autism epidemic.

Using ADDM Network numbers, it is easy to see the trend:

  • 1 in 150 children in 2000
  • 1 in 150 children in 2002
  • 1 in 125 children in 2004
  • 1 in 110 children in 2006
  • 1 in 88 children in 2008
  • 1 in 68 children in 2010
  • 1 in 68 children in 2012
  • 1 in 59 children in 2014 (the latest, 2018 report of children born in 2006)

As in previous years, this new report generated headlines from anti-vaccine groups, who continue to think that any increase in autism rates is a new reason to blame vaccines.

Of course, as it is has been shown over and over again, vaccines are not associated with autism.

These CDC reports should even take away any last idea that they are.

Why?

If there was any association with vaccines, then why are autism rates so widely different in the 11 states that are tracked by ADDM?

Are immunization rates different in those states?

Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network

Anyone who has read the latest report on autism rates understands that it “is not a representation of autism in the United States as a whole, but is instead an in-depth look at the 11 communities in the ADDM Network.”

Those communities have changed for each report, but this time they were in Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Wisconsin.

key-finding-asd-prevalence
Prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder Among Children Aged 8 Years — Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network, 11 Sites, United States, 2014 (2018 report)

Even then, the ADDM Network doesn’t look at all of the children in those states. They are mostly looking at children near large institutions that are hosts for the ADDM Network, such as the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, and Rutgers University, etc.

The 325,483 8-year-olds in the latest ADDM Network report were born in 2006 and live in:

  • part of Maricopa County in metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona
  • 75 counties in Arkansas
  • Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, and Jefferson counties in Colorado
  • Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett counties in Georgia
  • Baltimore County, Maryland
  • parts of two counties (Hennepin and Ramsey) including the large metropolitan cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota
  • Franklin, Jefferson, St. Charles, St. Louis, and St. Louis City counties in Missouri
  • Essex, Hudson, Union, and Ocean counties in New Jersey
  • Alamance, Chatham, Forsyth, Guilford, Orange, and Wake counties in North Carolina
  • Bedford, Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Marshall, Maury, Montgomery, Rutherford, Robertson, Williamson, and Wilson counties in Tennessee
  • Dane, Green, Jefferson, Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Rock, Walworth, and Waukesha counties in Wisconsin

Why is this important?

“Autism prevalence among black and Hispanic children is approaching that of white children,” said Dr. Stuart Shapira, associate director for science at the CDC’s National Center on Birth Defects and Developmental Disabilities. “The higher number of black and Hispanic children now being identified with autism could be due to more effective outreach in minority communities and increased efforts to have all children screened for autism so they can get the services they need.”

It shows that “there continue to be many children living with ASD who need services and support, now and as they grow into adolescence and adulthood.”

Immunization Rates and the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network

It also helps to dispell any last ideas that vaccines are associated with autism…

Just look at the immunization rates in the ADDM Network counties (4 doses of DTaP, 3 doses of IPV, one dose of MMR, 3 doses of Hib, 3 doses of HepB, 1 dose of Varicella, 4 doses of Prevnar, flu shot, and 1 dose of HepA by age 36 months) and compare them to the autism rates in those same counties.

 

County Autism Rate Immunization Rates
Maricopa (AZ) 1 in 71 DTaP 82%, IPV 91%, MMR 90%, Hib 91%, HepB 93%, Var 88%, Prev 75%, flu 32%, HepA 78%
Boulder (CO) 1 in 72 DTaP 87%, IPV 95%, MMR 93%, Hib 89%, HepB 90%, Var 93%, Prev 80%, flu -%, HepA 65%
Jefferson (CO) 1 in 72 DTaP 86%, IPV 93%, MMR 91%, Hib 90%, HepB 94%, Var 90%, Prev 83%, flu 48%, HepA 69%
Cobb (GA) 1 in 59 DTaP 83%, IPV 94%, MMR 91%, Hib 88%, HepB 93%, Var 91%, Prev 80%, flu 40%, HepA 21%
Baltimore (MD) 1 in 50 DTaP 91%, IPV 95%, MMR 95%, Hib 94%, HepB 95%, Var 93%, Prev 86%, flu 46%, HepA 61%
Hennepin (MN) 1 in 42 DTaP 88%, IPV 93%, MMR 92%, Hib 88%, HepB 93%, Var 90%, Prev 82%, flu 42%, HepA 47%
Ramsey (MN) 1 in 42 DTaP 87%, IPV 96%, MMR 93%, Hib 91%, HepB 94%, Var 93%, Prev 79%, flu 42%, HepA 63%
Jefferson (MO) 1 in 71 DTaP 83%, IPV 95%, MMR 90%, Hib 92%, HepB 95%, Var 87%, Prev 82%, flu -%, HepA 51%
Essex (NJ) 1 in 34 DTaP 81%, IPV 91%, MMR 91%, Hib 93%, HepB 91%, Var 91%, Prev 69%, flu -%, HepA -%
Hudson (NJ) 1 in 34 DTaP 78%, IPV 91%, MMR 91%, Hib 92%, HepB 91%, Var 91%, Prev 70%, flu -%, HepA -%
Ocean (NJ) 1 in 34 DTaP 84%, IPV 91%, MMR 91%, Hib 92%, HepB 91%, Var 83%, Prev 74%, flu -%, HepA -%
Union (NJ) 1 in 34 DTaP 89%, IPV 92%, MMR 92%, Hib 91%, HepB 94%, Var 91%, Prev 79%, flu -%, HepA -%
Davidson (TN) 1 in 64 DTaP 89%, IPV 95%, MMR 95%, Hib 93%, HepB 94%, Var 94%, Prev 84%, flu 50%, HepA 35%
Dane (WI)
1 in 71 DTaP 87%, IPV 93%, MMR 93%, Hib 88%, HepB 93%, Var 90%, Prev 82%, flu -%, HepA 45%

If vaccines were associated with autism, what should you see? Higher rates of autism in the areas with the highest immunization rates. You don’t see that in any of this data though, do you?

The counties in New Jersey, with the highest rates of autism, have good immunization rates, but they aren’t much different from the immunization rates in Colorado counties or Arizona counties with much lower autism rates.

Some other things we know about vaccines and the latest autism report?

  • in 2006, when those kids were born, New Jersey had one of the lowest rates for getting newborns a hepatitis B shot on their first day, as recommended, at just 23%. Arizona, with a much lower rate of autism, did much better, getting 65% of newborns their birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine on time. In fact, Maricopa County had one of the highest rates, at 71%.
  • fewer than half of their mothers likely received a flu shot during their pregnancy, even though they had been recommended since the 1990s
  • extremely few of their mothers received a Tdap vaccine during their pregnancy, as this didn’t become a routine recommendation until 2011

Does any of this surprise you?

How can vaccines be associated with autism, when counties that have higher immunization rates have lower rates of autism?

What to Know About Vaccines and the Latest Autism Prevalence Report

The latest Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network report on autism prevalence from the CDC shows a rate that has increased to 1 in 59 children. And as county level trends in vaccination coverage show no correlation to those autism prevalence rates, folks will hopefully stop trying to associate vaccines with autism.

More on Vaccines and the Latest Autism Prevalence Report

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