We know vaccines work.
How well do they work?
- neonatal tetanus
- congenital rubella syndrome
We Know Vaccines Work
How well do vaccines work?
Let’s look at the disease counts (morbidity data), how many kids got sick, just before we developed a vaccine and where we are now:
|Disease||Pre-Vax Era||Now||% Decrease|
|Smallpox||110,672||last case 1977||100%|
|Polio||21,269||last case 1993||100%|
|Congenital Rubella Syndrome||20,000||0||100%|
Sandra Roush and Trudy Murphy provided us with pre-vaccine baselines for 13 vaccine-preventable diseases in their article, Historical Comparisons of Morbidity and Mortality for Vaccine-Preventable Diseases in the United States.
“A greater than 92% decline in cases and a 99% or greater decline in deaths due to diseases prevented by vaccines recommended before 1980 were shown for diphtheria, mumps, pertussis, and tetanus. Endemic transmission of poliovirus and measles and rubella viruses has been eliminated in the United States; smallpox has been eradicated worldwide. Declines were 80% or greater for cases and deaths of most vaccine-preventable diseases targeted since 1980 including hepatitis A, acute hepatitis B, Hib, and varicella. Declines in cases and deaths of invasive S pneumoniae were 34% and 25%, respectively.”Roush et al on Historical Comparisons of Morbidity and Mortality for Vaccine-Preventable Diseases in the United States.
Their study, which came out in 2007, used morbidity (2006) and mortality (2004) data that was recent at the time. The data has held up very well since then, looking at 2018 statistics in the National Notifiable Infectious Diseases Weekly Tables (see below), even with talk of waning immunity for some vaccines.
But can’t you explain all of this decline away by talking about better hygiene, sanitation, and nutrition?
Of course not!
“…for those trained in pediatrics in the 1970s, Hib (Haemophilus influenzae type b) was a horror.”Walter Orenstein, MD
The pre-vaccine era for Hib was just before 1988, when the first Hib vaccine came out. We had good hygiene, sanitation, and nutrition in the 1980s and yet, a lot of kids died from Hib meningitis and epiglottitis. At least they did until he got a vaccine to prevent it.
And if it was better hygiene and sanitation, etc., why did it affect every disease at a different time? And why hasn’t better hygiene and sanitation stopped RSV, HIV, norovirus, Zika, and all of the other non-vaccine-preventable diseases?
Although there was a decline in mortality rates at the beginning of the 20th Century for all diseases thanks to better hygiene, sanitation, and nutrition, that effect plateaued by the mid-1930s. And since a lot of people were still getting sick, remember everyone used to get measles, even if a small percentage would die, it would add up to a lot of deaths!
More on We Know Vaccines Work
- VAXOPEDIA – Did the Measles Vaccine Have Only a Meager Effect on Deaths?
- VAXOPEDIA – Should I Be Worried That My Kids Didn’t Get the Smallpox Vaccine?
- VAXOPEDIA – Why Haven’t We Eradicated Measles Already?
- VAXOPEDIA – Milestones Towards the Eradication of Polio
- VAXOPEDIA – How Many People Get Measles Each Year?
- VAXOPEDIA – Who Dies with Measles?
- VAXOPEDIA – How Many People Get Measles Each Year?
- VAXOPEDIA – Why Do We Only Worry About Measles?
- VAXOPEDIA – Grave Reminders of Life Before Vaccines
- VAXOPEDIA – When Was the Last Measles Death in the United States?
- VAXOPEDIA – Graphs That Show Vaccines Don’t Work
- VAXOPEDIA – Did Better Hygiene and Sanitation Get Rid of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases?
- VAXOPEDIA – Anti-Vaccine Points Refuted A Thousand Times
- MMWR – National Notifiable Infectious Diseases: Weekly Tables available for Week 52, 2018
- MMWR – Sustained decrease in laboratory detection of rotavirus after implementation of routine vaccination—United States, 2000-2014.
- Study – Trends in national rotavirus activity before and after introduction of rotavirus vaccine into the national immunization program in the United States, 2000 to 2012.
- Study – Historical Comparisons of Morbidity and Mortality for Vaccine-Preventable Diseases in the United States
- Study – Decline of childhood Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) disease in the Hib vaccine era.
- Study – Estimated Annual Perinatal Hepatitis B Virus Infections in the United States, 2000–2009
- Tetanus in the United States,1950-1960
- CDC – Vital Statistics of the United States: 1890-1938
- Changes in the Age Distribution of Mortality Over the 20th Century
- The Role of Public Health Improvements in Health Advances: The 20th Century United States
- Pre-Vaccine Declines in Measles Mortality
- Theatricality and deception, weapons against the uninitiated
- “Vaccines didn’t save us” (a.k.a. “vaccines don’t work”): Intellectual dishonesty at its most naked
- Analysis of Anti-Vax Graphs
- Bad Chart Thursday: The TRUTH about Bad Measles Charts the Mainstream Media Is Suppressing
- Yes, vaccines did save us from disease: a graphic analysis
- The intellectual dishonesty of the “vaccines didn’t save us” gambit
- Vaccines saved lives – scientific evidence
- WHO – Vaccination greatly reduces disease, disability, death and inequity worldwide
- CDC – Benefits from Immunization During the Vaccines for Children Program Era — United States, 1994–2013